2013 Lower Saxony state election

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2013 Lower Saxony state election
← 2008 20 January 2013 2017 →
All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,574,900 (59.4%)
Increase 2.4%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader David McAllister Stephan Weil Anja Piel &
Stefan Wenzel
Party CDU SPD Greens
Last election 68 seats, 42.5% 48 seats, 30.3% 12 seats, 8.0%
Seats won 54 49 20
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 1 Increase 8
Popular vote 1,287,549 1,165,538 489,473
Percentage 36.0% 32.6% 13.7%
Swing Decrease 6.5% Increase 2.3% Increase 5.7%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Stefan Birkner Manfred Sohn
Party FDP Left
Last election 13 seats, 8.2% 11 seats, 7.1%
Seats won 14 0
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 11
Popular vote 354,970 112,212
Percentage 9.9% 3.1%
Swing Increase 1.7% Decrease 4.0%
Results for the single-member constituencies
Minister-President before election

David McAllister
CDU

Elected Minister-President

Stephan Weil
SPD

The 2013 Lower Saxony state election was held on 20 January 2013 to elect the members of the 17th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President David McAllister was defeated. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) formed a government with The Greens which held a slim, one-seat majority. Stephan Weil was subsequently elected Minister-President.[1]

Background

The CDU–FDP coalition had governed since the 2003. In the 2008 state election, the SPD under Wolfgang Jüttner lost more than three percentage points, suffering its worst ever result in Lower Saxony. The FDP retained their status as the third strongest party, leading the Greens by just 0.2%. The Left won 7.1 percent of the vote, crossing the electoral threshold and winning seats for the first time.

Most polls taken in early 2012 showed a SPD–Green majority. However, in the lead-up to the election, polls tightened, with the CDU–FDP coalition virtually neck and neck with the SPD–Green coalition. Polling suggested that the FDP's vote could be very close to 5%, which led some officials in the CDU to suggest tactically voting FDP to ensure it met the threshold.[1]

Before the election, the SPD and Greens announced their plan to govern and campaign together. The CDU acted independently of the FDP during the campaign, but sought to continue the incumbent coalition. If a CDU–FDP coalition could not be formed, the CDU stated that the SPD would be their second choice. However, the SPD itself rejected the idea of a grand coalition.[1]

Electoral system

The system used was Mixed-member proportional representation. The results in the electoral districts were determined using FPTP and the overall result using the D'Hondt method.[2]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 16th Landtag of Lower Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2008 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Christian democracy David McAllister 42.5%
68 / 152
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Stephan Weil 30.3%
48 / 152
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Classical liberalism Stefan Birkner 8.2%
13 / 152
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Green politics Anja Piel
Stefan Wenzel 		8.0%
12 / 152
Linke The Left
Die Linke 		Democratic socialism Manfred Sohn 7.1%
11 / 152

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CDU SPD FDP Grüne Linke Piraten Others Lead
2013 state election 20 Jan 2013 – 36.0 32.6 9.9 13.7 3.1 2.1 2.5 3.4
GMS 14–16 Jan 2013 1,006 41 33 5 13 3 3 2 8
INFO GmbH 2–6 Jan 2013 1,002 38.0 31.5 4.5 14.5 6.0 3.0 2.5 6.5
Infratest dimap 8–10 Jan 2013 1,001 40 33 5 13 3 3 3 7
GMS 7–9 Jan 2013 1,007 41 33 5 13 3 3 2 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–9 Jan 2013 1,040 39 33 5 13 3 3 4 6
Infratest dimap 28 Dec 2012–2 Jan 2013 1,000 40 34 4 13 3 3 3 6
INFO GmbH 7–14 Dec 2012 1,001 38.5 33.0 3.5 12.5 4.0 4.5 4.0 5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 Dec 2012 1,043 39 32 4 13 4 4 4 7
Infratest dimap 30 Nov–4 Dec 2012 1,000 40 33 3 15 3 3 3 7
GMS 28–30 Nov 2012 1,006 41 32 4 13 3 4 3 9
Infratest dimap 2–6 Nov 2012 1,003 41 34 3 13 3 3 3 7
Infratest dimap 17–19 Sep 2012 1,003 37 33 3 15 4 4 4 4
GMS 10–14 Sep 2012 1,002 38 33 5 13 5 3 3 5
Forsa 11–20 Jul 2012 1,108 38 33 4 11 4 7 3 5
YouGov 5–13 Jul 2012 1,025 31 35 4 14 5 7 4 4
Infratest dimap 14–15 May 2012 1,005 32 36 4 13 3 8 4 4
GMS 16–19 Apr 2012 1,005 37 33 3 13 3 9 2 4
Infratest dimap 20–24 Jan 2012 1,001 36 32 3 17 5 4 3 4
GMS 10–14 Jan 2012 1,003 37 33 3 18 3 3 3 4
Infratest dimap 2–4 May 2011 1,000 34 31 5 22 5 1 2 3
Infratest dimap 7–11 Jan 2010 1,000 41 29 9 11 6 – 4 12
2008 state election 27 Jan 2008 – 42.5 30.3 8.2 8.0 7.1 – 3.9 12.2

Election result

Summary of the 20 January 2013 election results for the Landtag of Lower Saxony
Party Votes % +/- Constituencies List seats Total seats +/- Total seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 1,287,549 36.0 Decrease6.5 54 0 54 Decrease14 39.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,165,419 32.6 Increase2.3 33 16 49 Increase1 35.8
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 489,473 13.7 Increase5.7 0 20 20 Increase8 14.6
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 354,970 9.9 Increase1.7 0 14 14 Increase1 10.2
The Left (Linke) 112,212 3.1 Decrease4.0 0 0 0 Decrease11 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 75,603 2.1 Increase2.1 0 0 0 ±0 0
Free Voters (FW) 39,714 1.1 Increase0.6 0 0 0 ±0 0
Others 49,960 1.4 0 0 0 ±0 0
Total 3,574,900 100.0 87 50 137 Decrease15
Voter turnout 59.4 Increase2.4
Lower Saxon Returning Officer
Popular Vote
CDU
 
 36.02%
SPD
 
 32.60%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 13.69%
FDP
 
 9.93%
DIE LINKE
 
 3.14%
PIRATEN
 
 2.11%
Other
 
 2.51%
Landtag seats
CDU
 
 39.42%
SPD
 
 35.77%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 14.60%
FDP
 
 10.22%

Sources

  1. ^ a b c "The vincible chancellor". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2022-10-13.
  2. ^ "Wahlsystem der Landtagswahl in Niedersachsen (#LTWNDS)".
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