2015 Croatian parliamentary election

2015 Croatian parliamentary election

← 2011 8 November 2015 2016 →
All 151 seats in the Croatian Parliament 76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	63.06% ( 6.77pp)
Party Leader % Seats +/– Patriotic Coalition Tomislav Karamarko 34.64 59 +12 Croatia is Growing Zoran Milanović 33.38 56 −27 Most Božo Petrov 13.64 19 New Human Shield Collective leadership 4.54 1 New Labour & Solidarity Milan Bandić 3.39 2 New IDS–PGS–Rl Boris Miletić 1.90 3 0 Successful Croatia Radimir Čačić 1.57 1 New HDSSB Dragan Vulin 1.37 2 −4 Minority lists SDSS Vojislav Stanimirović 77.63 3 0 MESZ Sándor Juhás 50.23 1 0 Kali Sara Veljko Kajtazi 41.41 1 New Independents —[a] – 3 +2 This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below. Result by constituency. Prime Minister before Subsequent Prime Minister Zoran Milanović SDP Tihomir Orešković Non-partisan

Parliamentary elections were held in Croatia on 8 November 2015.^[1] All 151 seats in the Parliament were up for election. This parliamentary election was the 8th since the first multi-party election in 1990 and the first since Croatia joined the European Union in 2013. The ruling center-left Croatia is Growing coalition, led by Prime Minister Zoran Milanović, was challenged by the center-right Patriotic Coalition led by the HDZ and headed by its party chairman Tomislav Karamarko, and also faced several new political coalitions.

The elections produced a hung parliament, with the ruling Croatia is Growing coalition winning 56 seats in the 10 electoral constituencies within Croatia and 3 of the 8 representatives of national minorities (Ermina Lekaj-Prljaskaj and Veljko Kajtazi are members of HNS and Sándor Juhász is a member of SDP). The opposition Patriotic Coalition won 56 seats within Croatia and all three seats allocated to Croatian citizens living abroad, winning 59 seats, technically tying with the ruling coalition. The IDS-PGS-RI coalition was expected to side with Croatia is Growing, as well as the remaining 5 minority representatives, giving Prime Minister Milanović's coalition 67 seats to 59 for Karamarko's opposition coalition. This left Milanović 9 seats short of a majority, while Karamarko needed 17 seats.

The third-placed MOST led by Metković mayor Božo Petrov, which won 19 seats, was expected to be the deciding factor in the formation of the next government of Croatia. After the election Drago Prgomet of MOST stated that neither Milanović nor Karamarko would be their choice for Prime Minister and that MOST will decide on who will head the 13th government of Croatia.^[2] Some within MOST had stated they prefer the formation of a national unity government made up of HDZ, SDP and MOST, though this was considered extremely unlikely.^[3] On 11 November Patriotic coalition leader Karamarko openly rejected the prospect of an HDZ-SDP-MOST government.^[4] This was followed by more than 45 days of negotiations between all three coalitions.

On 22 December it was stated that Croatia is Growing would form a government with MOST, however, on 23 December, MOST decided to give its support to a government with the HDZ. The coalition was further supported by Milan Bandić 365 and two independent minority representatives, giving them a slim majority of 78 seats in Parliament, two more than the required 76 seats. They nominated a Croatian-Canadian businessman named Tihomir Orešković, who was generally unknown to the public and who had spent most of his life in Canada, to be the next prime minister.^[5][6] A new government finally took office on 22 January 2016 with Orešković as the 11th Prime Minister, after a record 76 days of negotiations.

Background

Politics of Croatia
Constitution Constitutional Act on the Rights of National Minorities in the Republic of Croatia
Executive President (list) Zoran Milanović Cabinet (list) Prime Minister: Andrej Plenković
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The 2011 general election was held on 4 December 2011 and resulted in the victory of the center-left Kukuriku coalition led by the Social Democratic Party and supported by the Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats, Croatian Party of Pensioners and the Istrian Democratic Assembly. The largest opposition party is the center-right Croatian Democratic Union. Other smaller opposition parties are the Croatian Labourists – Labour Party and the Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja.

The previous 7th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament was dissolved on 28 September 2015, with the President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović subsequently being tasked with scheduling the elections on a Sunday within 60 days of the dissolution.^[7]

Electoral system

Elections were held in 10 electoral districts inside Croatia each with a roughly equal number of registered voters and 14 seats, supplemented by one electoral district for Croatian citizens living abroad (3 seats), and one electoral district for national minorities (8 seats). Parties or alliances had to pass a 5% threshold in each electoral district in order to qualify for seats, which were then distributed proportionally between the qualified lists using the D'Hondt method. As voters were allowed to select both a list and a candidate from it, the ranking of candidates on the list was superseded by voter selection wherever candidates got at least 10% of the list's votes.

Electoral law amendments

In February 2015 the Croatian parliament voted to amend the country's election rules by introducing a number of changes, most importantly introducing an element of preferential voting by letting candidate selection function as a most open list system for candidates receiving a minimum of 10%, while keeping list ranking for those that do not meet this quota. In addition there were several other changes, including a gender quota, a ban on convicted criminals running, new rules for monitoring of the elections, changes to the way media covers elections etc. The proposal came from the ruling Social Democratic Party as well as several other minor changes. The opposition left Parliament and did not participate in the voting process.^[8] However, on 25 September 2015 the Constitutional Court of Croatia ruled that some of the changes to the electoral law were unconstitutional, including a ban on criminals convicted for misuse of position running for office, while maintaining this ban for other offences, an electoral list quota of 40% candidates of each gender and an obligation to collect 1,500 signatures for a political party to run in an electoral district.

Political parties

Name		Abbr.	Ideology	Political spectrum	Leader	Seats 2011	Seats before election	Electoral districts
Croatia is Growing coalition[9]
	Social Democratic Party of Croatia Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske	SDP	Social democracy[10]	Centre-left	Zoran Milanović	61	56[11]	all but XI
	Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats Hrvatska narodna stranka - liberalni demokrati	HNS	Liberalism, Economic liberalism, Progressivism[12][13]	Centre left	Vesna Pusić	14	11
	Croatian Labourists - Labour Party Hrvatski laburisti - stranka rada	Laburisti	Labor rights	Left-wing	Nansi Tireli	6	2
	Croatian Party of Pensioners Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika	HSU	Single-issue politics (pensioner's rights)	Centre-left	Silvano Hrelja	3	4
	Authentic Croatian Peasant Party	A-HSS	Agrarianism	Centre-right	Stanko Grčić	0	0
	Zagorje Party	ZS	Regionalism (Hrvatsko Zagorje)	Centre	Miljenko Jerneić	0	0
Patriotic Coalition[14][15]
	Croatian Democratic Union Hrvatska demokratska zajednica	HDZ	Christian democracy, Social conservatism[16]	Centre-right	Tomislav Karamarko	44	42	all
	Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starčević Hrvatska stranka prava dr. Ante Starčević	HSP AS	National conservatism	Right-wing	Ivan Tepeš	1	1
	Croatian Peasant Party Hrvatska seljačka stranka	HSS	Agrarianism, Christian democracy, Social conservatism	Centre-right	Branko Hrg	1	1
	Croatian Social Liberal Party Hrvatska socijalno liberalna stranka	HSLS	Liberalism	Centre	Darinko Kosor	0	0
	Bloc Pensioners Together	BUZ	Single-issue politics (Pensioners' rights)		Milivoj Špika	0
	Croatian Growth	Hrast	Social conservatism		Ladislav Ilčić	Did not exist	0
	Croatian Christian Democratic Party	HDS	Christian democracy		Goran Dodig	0	0
	Democratic Party of Zagorje	ZDS	Regionalism (Hrvatsko Zagorje)		Stanko Belina	0	0
"The Right to Our Own" coalition
	Istrian Democratic Assembly Istarski demokratski sabor	IDS	Istrian regionalism, social liberalism	Centre-left	Boris Miletić	3	2	VIII
	Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar Primorsko goranski savez	PGS	Regionalism (Primorje-Gorski Kotar)		Darijo Vasilić	0	0
	List for Rijeka Lista za Rijeku	RI	Regionalism (Rijeka)			0	0
Successful Croatia coalition
	People's Party - Reformists Narodna stranka - Reformisti	Reformisti	Economic liberalism[17]	Centre	Radimir Čačić	Did not exist	3	all
	Forward Croatia! - Progressive Alliance Naprijed Hrvatska! - Progresivni savez	Naprijed Hrvatska!	Progressivism, Social democracy	Centre-left	Ivo Josipović	Did not exist	1
	Party of Croatian Pensioners, Green Forum, Dubrovnik Democratic Assembly	Umirovljenici, ZF, DDS				0	0
Labour and Solidarity Coalition
	Milan Bandić 365 - The Party of Labour and Solidarity Milan Bandić 365 - stranka rada i solidarnosti	Bandić 365	Populism	Centre	Milan Bandić	Did not exist	0	all
	Istrian democrats Istarski demokrati	ID-DI	Regionalism	Centre-left	Damir Kajin	Did not exist	1 [18]
	New wave- Party of Development Novi val-Stranka razvoja	Novi val	Social Democratic	Centre-left	Ljubo Jurčić	Did not exist	1 [19]
	Democratic Party of Prigorje and Zagreb, Democratic Women's Party, European Party of Croatia, Croatian Workers' Party, Croatian Party of Greens – Eco-Alliance, Međimurje Party, Independent Croatian Farmers, Pensioners' Party, Pensioners' Democratic Union, Green Alliance, Green Party	DPS, DSŽ, HES, HRS, Zeleni, MS, SU, UDU, Zeleni, ZS				0	0
Coalition "Ready"
	Croatian Conservative Party Hrvatska konzervativna stranka	HKS	National conservatism, Economic liberalism	Right-wing	Ruža Tomašić	Did not exist	0	all
	Croatian Party of Rights Hrvatska stranka prava	HSP	National liberalism, Croatian nationalism, Euroscepticism	far right	Daniel Srb	0	0
	Family Party Obiteljska stranka	OS	Social conservatism	Right-wing	Mate Knezović	0	0
Not part of any coalition
	Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja Hrvatski demokratski savez Slavonije i Baranje	HDSSB	Slavonian regionalism, Conservativism	Right-wing	Dragan Vulin	6	7	IV, V
	Croatian Citizen Party Hrvatska građanska stranka	HGS	Right-wing populism	Centre-right	Željko Kerum	2	2	IX, X
	Sustainable Development of Croatia Održivi razvoj Hrvatske	ORaH	Sustainable development, Environmentalism, Progressivism	Centre-left	Mirela Holy	Did not exist	3	all
	Bridge of Independent Lists Most nezavisnih lista	Most	Fiscal conservatism, Economic liberalism	Centre-right	Božo Petrov	Did not exist	0	all
	Human Blockade Živi zid	Živi zid	Populism, Anti-establishment, Euroscepticism	Centre	Five Co-Presidents	Did not exist	0	all but XI (joint list with AM in IX)
	Youth Action Akcija mladih	AM				0	0	all but XI (joint list with Živi zid in IX)
	In the Name of the Family – Project Homeland U Ime Obitelji – projekt Domovina	UiO-projekt Domovina	Social conservatism, Political Catholicism	Right-wing	Željka Markić	Did not exist	0	all
	Authentic Croatian Party of Rights Autohtona – Hrvatska stranka prava	A-HSP				0	0	all
	Croatian Christian Democratic Union, Croatian Democratic Party, National Democrats	HKDU, HDS, ND				0	0	I, III, V–VII, IX–XI
	Croatian Dawn – Party of the People Hrvatska Zora Stranka Naroda	HZ	Social conservatism, Christian democracy	Right-wing	Milan Kujundžić	Did not exist	0	I, II, VI, VII, IX, X
	Socialist Labour Party of Croatia Socijalistička radnička partija	SRP	Communism	Far-left	Vladimir Kapularin	0	0	II, III, VIII, X, XI
	For the City Za Grad	Za Grad				Did not exist	0	I, II, VI, VII
	Defenders' Patriotic Party of Croatia Braniteljsko Domoljubna Stranka Hrvatske	BDSH				0	0	I, III, IV, VII
	Workers' Front Radnička fronta	RF	Democratic socialism	Far-left	collective leadership	Did not exist	0	I, VI, VIII
	Smart Pametno	Pametno	Economic liberalism	Centre	Marijana Puljak	Did not exist	0	I, VII, X
	Together Movement Pokret Zajedno	Pokret Zajedno				Did not exist	0	I, VII, VIII
	Croatian Party of Order Hrvatska stranka reda	HSR				Did not exist	0	II
	Međimurje Democratic Alliance Međimurske demokratski savez	MDS				Did not exist	0	III
	Democratic Union of National Renewal – Right Demokratski Savez Nacionalne Obnove – Desno	Desno	National conservatism, Croatian nationalism	Far-right	Anto Đapić	Did not exist	0	IV

Opinion polls

Results

On November 9, 2015 State Election Commission published only the provisional official results from the 99.9% of regular polling stations because elections were repeated in 7 polling stations due to irregularities on election day. Final results were announced on 24 November.

Centre-right Patriotic Coalition won 59^[20] seats, centre-left Croatia is Growing coalition 58 (2 national minority representatives side with the Croatian People's Party - Liberal Democrats), centre Bridge of Independent Lists 19, centre-left Istrian Democratic Assembly 3, right wing Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja and centre Milan Bandić 365 - The Party of Labour and Solidarity 2 each, centre Human Blockade and centre People's Party - Reformists 1 each. As for the 8 mandates of minority representatives, 3 go to Croatia is Growing because those representatives are members of HNS party or its parliamentary club, while Independent Democratic Serb Party that won 3 seats confirmed that it would negotiate with Croatia is Growing. In addition, Istrian Democratic Assembly also confirmed that it would negotiate only with Croatia is Growing.

A total of 17 parties won representation in the 8th assembly of the Croatian Parliament: HDZ (51), SDP (42 + 1 representative of national minorities), MOST (19), HNS (9 + 2 national minority representatives), Labourists (3), IDS (3), HSP-AS (3), HSU (2), HSLS (2), Bandić Milan 365 (2), HDSSB (2), BUZ (1), HSS (1), Human Blockade (1), HRAST (1), HDS (1) and Reformists (1).^[21] Such a fractured political situation meant that forming a stable majority that would serve a full 4-year term would be a challenge. Furthermore, the total number of MOST's seats in Parliament, who held the balance of power, fell from 19 to 15 within months of election day, namely Drago Prgomet, who was expelled from MOST only four days after the election, founded his own party Croatian Dialogue Initiative (HRID), which two more MOST parliamentarians soon jointed, while Stipe Petrina another MOST MP became an independent.

National minorities elected 8 representatives through a separate election system: Milorad Pupovac (75,9% of votes), Mile Horvat (59,2%) and Mirko Rašković (54,4%) for the Serb national minority, Sándor Juhász (50,2%) for the Hungarian minority, Furio Radin (65,8%) for the Italian minority, Vladimir Bilek (75,7%) for the Czech and Slovak minorities, Veljko Kajtazi (41,4%) for the Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian, Vlach minorities and Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj (21,1%) for the Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovene minorities.

Minority seats

Distribution of seats by electoral district

Government formation

According to official results the ruling Croatia is Growing coalition won 56 seats, amounting to 59 due to the coalition with IDS.^[24] The opposition Patriotic Coalition and MOST (Croatian for bridge) were the second and third largest blocs, respectively. MOST has stated that it will not enter into coalition with either of the two largest blocs and that it will instead present its own candidate for prime minister.^[25] On 12 November, MOST MP Drago Prgomet was expelled from the party for holding private talks with Prime Minister Zoran Milanović without the knowledge of other members of the party's leadership.^[26]

There are four possible outcomes: HDZ forms a coalition with MOST, SDP forms a coalition with MOST, forming of a coalition between HDZ and SDP, and called a new election.^[27] Jutarnji reported that Milanović is closer to gaining the 76 seats needed for a majority in parliament than Tomislav Karamarko, the former having reportedly gained the support of IDS and the eight MPs elected by national minorities. It was also reported that Milan Bandić, whose party won two seats, as well as Radimir Čačić of Forward Croatia! - Progressive Alliance are also more likely to support Milanović. The regional party HDSSB is considered very unlikely to support a Patriotic Coalition government due to animosity on the local level (although they are ideologically closer), but they might support Croatia is Growing in a minority government.^[28] The first round of talks on the formation of the next government, held on 26 November at the Presidential palace proved inconclusive, with none of the leaders of parliamentary parties presenting the required 76 MPs needed for the naming of a Prime Minister-designate. President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović called the first session of the eighth assembly of parliament for 3 December and set the date for new talks on 7 December. On 27 November, Milanović offered the position of Speaker of Parliament to MOST chairman Božo Petrov, who declined stating that he was not interested in holding a position, but rather for reforms to be agreed upon first. On 23 December, the Patriotic Coalition, MOST, Milan Bandić 365 - The Party of Labour and Solidarity and two minority representatives (Ermina Lekaj-Prljaskaj and Mirko Rašković) agreed upon non-partisan candidate Tihomir Orešković as prime minister-designate. Orešković presented the 78 signatures of support to Grabar-Kitarović, upon which she gave him the task of forming a new government and called the second attempt at constituting the parliament for 28 December.^{[citation needed]}Željko Reiner was elected Speaker on 28 December with 88 votes in favor, 62 abstentions and 1 against, thus constituting the 8th Assembly of Parliament 50 days after the elections were held. The confirmation of the cabinet to be led by Tihomir Orešković took place on 22 January 2016. After a 14-hour parliamentary debate the new government was supported by a majority of 83 out of 151 parliamentary representatives. Zoran Milanović handed over the office of Prime Minister to Tihomir Orešković at 23:55 pm on the same day. This ended a record-breaking 76 days of negotiations that began on 9 November 2015.

Notes

References

External links

• Official results by State Election Committee (Interactive Map)