2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1.[1] This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Boozman, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
- Curtis Coleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Boozman | Curtis Coleman | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | February 4, 2016 | 457 | ± 4.6% | 68% | 23% | 9% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Boozman (incumbent) | 298,039 | 76.45% | |
| Republican | Curtis Coleman | 91,795 | 23.55% | |
| Total votes | 389,834 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Conner Eldridge, former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Conner Eldridge | 214,228 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 214,228 | 100.00% | ||
Third parties
The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.[5]
Candidates
Nominated
- Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014[5]
General election
Candidates
- John Boozman (R), incumbent senator
- Conner Eldridge (D), former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
- Frank Gilbert (L), DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014
Debates
| Dates | Location | Boozman | Eldridge | Gilbert | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 12, 2016 | Little Rock, Arkansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[8] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[9] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[10] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Boozman (R) | Conner Eldridge (D) | Frank Gilbert (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 930 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 798 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 696 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 43% | — | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 593 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 43% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 475 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 46% | — | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 484 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 44% | — | — | 2% |
| University of Arkansas | October 18–25, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 61% | 38% | — | 1% | — |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | October 21, 2016 | 463 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 8% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | September 15–17, 2016 | 831 | ± 3.4% | 55% | 29% | 5% | 3% | 8% |
| Emerson College | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 30% | — | 11% | 15% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | June 21, 2016 | 751 | ± 3.6% | 51% | 29% | 6% | — | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Mike Beebe
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Boozman (R) | Mike Beebe (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 40% | 46% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 39% | 49% | — | 12% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | June 8–11, 2015 | 1,183 | ± 1.84% | 37% | 45% | — | 18% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Boozman (incumbent) | 661,984 | 59.77% | +1.87% | |
| Democratic | Conner Eldridge | 400,602 | 36.17% | -0.78% | |
| Libertarian | Frank Gilbert | 43,866 | 3.96% | +0.72% | |
| Write-in | 1,070 | 0.10% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,107,522 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
- Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
References
- ^ "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ^ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.
- ^ "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
- ^ Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.
- ^ a b Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- John Boozman (R)
- Curtis Coleman (R)
- Conner Eldridge (D)
- Frank Gilbert (L)
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