Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[3] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[4] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[5][6] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[7]
The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[8]
In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.[9]
Change of fixed election date
Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier.[10] As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[11]
To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of OntarioYasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election",[2] and it came into effect in December 2016.[12]
The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City CouncillorDoug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions".[13][14] In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens[15] and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.[16]
According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.[17]
In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025.[18] PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".[19]
Mood of the voters
According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for.[20] The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.[21]
In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:
PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%)
At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs
For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters
Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all
= Not voting for party; not considered = Not voting for party; shared consideration = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration = Will vote for party; others considered = Will vote for party; no others considered
Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.[28] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.[29]
Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[31][32]
January 26, 2018
Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.[33]
March 10, 2018
Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election.[34] Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.[35]
April 11, 2018
First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance.[36]
April 16, 2018
The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.[37]
May 7, 2018
First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne[38]
Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25
Conduct a value-for-money audit of the government's spending
Conduct an independent commission of inquiry into the previous government's spending
Centralize government purchasing
Increase the Risk Management Program limit by $50 million annually
Eliminate the Jobs and Prosperity fund
There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5billion and $2billion.
Child care
Publicly-funded child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
Fund a sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75% of their child-care costs
Income-based scale for child care, providing publicly-funded child care for families earning under $40,000 annually and public funding to reduce the cost of childcare to an average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Education
Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
$3billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings.[90] Both candidates denied these claims.[91] The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.[92]
In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier. Evans was the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.[93][94]
Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systems for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000.[109][110] This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016 by-election in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator.[110]
The percentage of votes cast for the Progressive Conservatives by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the NDP by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the Liberals by riding.
Change in Progressive Conservative vote share by riding compared to the 2014 Ontario election.
Each dot represents five-thousand votes for the party of the associated colour. Data is based on individual riding results. Dots are placed at random positions within the ridings that they belong to.
The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election was 17.96 according to the Gallagher Index, significantly in favour of the PCs.
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^as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
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^Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
^Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 18
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Further reading
Perrella, Andrea; Kiss, Simon J.; Kay, Barry J. (February 2021). "Conservative Populism, or Unpopular Liberalism? Review of the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election". Canadian Political Science Review. 14 (1): 118–146. ISSN 1911-4125.