2024 Indonesian presidential election

2024 Indonesian presidential election
← 2019 14 February 2024 (2024-02-14) 2029 →
Registered204,421,612 (Increase 6.04%)
Turnout82.39% (Increase 0.42pp)
 
Prabowo Subianto, Candidate for Indonesia's President in 2024.jpg
Anies Baswedan, Candidate for Indonesia's President in 2024.jpg
Ganjar Pranowo, Candidate for Indonesia's President in 2024.jpg
Candidate Prabowo Subianto Anies Baswedan Ganjar Pranowo
Party Gerindra Independent PDI-P
Alliance Advanced Indonesia[a] Change[b] Alliance of Parties[c]
Running mate Gibran Rakabuming Muhaimin Iskandar Mahfud MD
Popular vote 96,214,691 40,971,906 27,040,878
Percentage 58.59% 24.95% 16.47%
Results by city/regency
President before election

Joko Widodo
PDI-P

Elected President

Prabowo Subianto
Gerindra

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Presidential elections were held in Indonesia on 14 February 2024 with defence minister and former general Prabowo Subianto contesting the elections against the governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan and the governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo; incumbent president Joko Widodo was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office.

On 20 March, the General Elections Commission (KPU) announced Prabowo's victory, having received over 96 million votes. Prabowo and his vice-presidential candidate, Gibran Rakabuming, will be sworn in on 20 October 2024.[1]

The presidential election was held together with the legislative election for members of the House of Representatives (DPR RI), the Senate (DPD RI), and local legislative councils (DPRD Provinsi and DPRD Kabupaten or DPRD Kota) throughout Indonesia.

The elevation of Prabowo Subianto to the presidency prompted concerns about scholars and observers about potential democratic backsliding in Indonesia.[2][3][4][5]

Background

2024 presidential election promotional logo

The 2014 and 2019 presidential elections were contested by the same two candidates. These are Prabowo Subianto, who was nominated by parties supporting the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration, and Joko Widodo, who was mostly supported by the opposition and subsequently won.[6] Jokowi won reelection in 2019 by winning 55.5% of the votes.[7]

The President of Indonesia is directly elected every five years. As stipulated in Article 7 of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, incumbent President Joko Widodo is ineligible to run for a third term. The presidential election was required to be held before the end of his current term on 20 October 2024.

In the 2019 election, Joko Widodo was re-elected with Ma'ruf Amin as his running mate. He chose his opponent in the election, Prabowo Subianto, as Minister of Defense after a reconciliation meeting in July 2019.[8][9] The meeting, which ended the political feud between both men, also resulted in Gerindra Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) in joining the governing Onward Indonesia Coalition.[10]

Electoral system

The general election period is regulated in Article 6A and Article 22E of the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia and by the Law on General Elections. The presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs are proposed by political parties or coalitions of political parties that have at least 20% of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) or at least 25% of the national vote from the previous House of Representatives general election. Of the parties in the 2019–2024 DPR, only PDI-P could nominate a pair of candidates without a coalition with other parties, given that the party met the presidential threshold requirement of at least 115 seats in the outgoing DPR."[11][12] Some non-parliamentary political parties, both parties participating in the previous election and new parties after 2019, could choose to be supporting parties for a presidential candidate.[13]

A runoff is held if no candidates obtains more than 50% of the votes with at least 20% of the votes in more than half of the provinces in Indonesia in the first round. As of 2024, a runoff has only ever taken place in 2004. This election is the first election since 2009 to have more than two candidates.

Candidates

Ballot paper used on 14 February 2024

Nominees

Anies–Muhaimin

Former Governor of DKI Jakarta (2017‒2022) and Minister of Education and Culture (2014‒2016), Anies Baswedan, became the first presidential candidate nominated by a political party and managed to obtain a recommendation from the results of the national working meeting of the NasDem Party.[14] He was endorsed by the Coalition of Change, which included the NasDem Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and the Democratic Party. At that time, PKS nominated former West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan as Anies' vice presidential candidate.[15] Similarly, the Democratic Party nominated its chairman and rival in the 2017 gubernatorial election, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.[16] Initially, Anies classed Agus' name as his running-mate.[17] Over time, the coalition experienced political dynamics with the departure of the Democrats in favour of Prabowo's candidacy after the entry of PKB from the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition which supported Prabowo,[18] as the National Awakening Party (PKB) joined the Coalition of Change in support of Anies.[19] The PKB's entry was accompanied by an agreement to pair Anies with their chairman, Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR RI) (1999‒2009, and 2019‒present) and Minister of Labor and Transmigration (2009‒2014), Muhaimin Iskandar.[20] Previously, he had been proposed by his party, PKB, as a vice-presidential candidate for Joko Widodo in the previous general election. He was even predicted to be nominated as a presidential candidate if he was not chosen as Jokowi's running mate.[21]

1
2024 Coalition of Change ticket
Anies Baswedan Muhaimin Iskandar
for President for Vice President
Governor of DKI Jakarta (2017‒2022) Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR RI) (1999‒2009, 2019‒present)
167 / 575(29%)
Campaign

Prabowo–Gibran

Prabowo Subianto was nominated by the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) as the presidential candidate on 12 August 2022.[22] This was followed by two United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) member parties and non-parliamentary parties that became the forerunner of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition after the dissolution of the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition with the National Awakening Party (PKB).[23] This will be Prabowo's fourth presidential run since he was Megawati Sukarnoputri's vice presidential candidate in 2009. He is backed by the two KIB member parties, Golkar and PAN, as well as the non-parliamentary parties that formed the Advanced Indonesia Coalition after the dissolution of the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition with PKB.[23] The Democratic Party[24] and the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) joined later.[25] PSI's support for Prabowo came after the appointment of Kaesang Pangarep, Gibran's younger brother, as party chairman.

On 22 October 2023, President Joko Widodo's eldest son and Mayor of Surakarta, Gibran Rakabuming, was announced as a vice presidential candidate following a nomination by Golkar,[26] even though at that time of announcement, Gibran was still a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).[27] He is only 36 years old but was allowed to run after the Constitutional Court (MK RI) ruling on 16 October 2023 which allowed presidential or vice presidential candidates under the age of 40 if they have been or are currently serving as governor, regent, or mayor.[28] After his nomination, Gibran, who was a PDI-P cadre, had his membership terminated, followed by his brother-in-law who is also the Mayor of Medan since 2021, Bobby Nasution, after his declaration of support for Prabowo-Gibran.[29]

2
2024 Advanced Indonesia Coalition ticket
Prabowo Subianto Gibran Rakabuming
for President for Vice President
Minister of Defense (2019–present) Mayor of Surakarta (2021–present)
261 / 575(45%)
Campaign

Ganjar–Mahfud

The end of Joko Widodo's presidency in 2024 led the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to search for a presidential candidate to replace him. Central Java Governor (2013‒2023) and former member of the House of Representatives (2004‒2013), Ganjar Pranowo, was nominated for president by PDI-P.[30] His name was announced by PDI-P Chair Megawati.[30] Previously, there were rumours of PDI-P's nomination of Puan Maharani to be paired with Prabowo as a vice presidential candidate.[31] Puan was eventually nominated by the party to become a legislative candidate for the House of Representatives.[32] In addition, NasDem also nominated Ganjar's name as one of the presidential candidates in its national working meeting, although his nomination was mandated to Anies. Hanura, a non-parliamentary party, also supported Ganjar as a presidential candidate.[33] Hanura became the first supporting party after Ganjar's nomination by PDI-P that gave birth to political cooperation without a coalition.[34] A few days later, the United Development Party (PPP) also endorsed Ganjar.[35] The two parties also collaborated in the legislative election.[36] Afterwards, Perindo also nominated Ganjar amid rumours that his party would join the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition that would later support Prabowo.[37][38] Long before PDI-P endorsed Ganjar, PSI first named him as its presidential candidate and Yenny Wahid, daughter of former President Abdurrahman Wahid, as its vice president.[39] Later, PSI cancelled its support for Ganjar following its party congress.[40] This came after PDI-P politician Said Abdullah proposed Anies as one of Ganjar's potential running mates.[41] This proposal was ignored by NasDem as the party that led Anies' candidacy.[42]

On 18 October 2023, Ganjar followed Anies in announcing his running mate. Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs and former member of the House of Representatives (2004‒2008) and Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court (MK RI) (2008‒2013), Mahfud MD, was announced as the vice presidential candidate for Ganjar, which was announced directly by Megawati.[43] Mahfud had previously been tapped as a running mate for Joko Widodo in 2019 before being replaced by Ma'ruf Amin in the final seconds before the announcement.[44] That day, he had prepared a white shirt in line with Jokowi's symbolic campaign attire. The shirt was eventually worn again during the submission of the vice presidential candidate with Ganjar.[45] The registration of this candidate pair followed Anies-Muhaimin's submission to the KPU on 19 October 2023.[46]

3
2024 Alliance of Parties ticket
Ganjar Pranowo Mahfud MD
for President for Vice President
Governor of Central Java (2013–2023) Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs (2019–2024)
147 / 575(26%)
Campaign

Endorsements

General election

Campaign

Prior to joining Joko Widodo's government, Prabowo Subianto was known for being assertive and expressive as a reflection of his previous profession as a soldier. In each of his presidential campaigns, he criticised Jokowi's policies.[47] Likewise, his speeches showed Prabowo's firm stance that positioned himself as part of the opposition to Jokowi.[48] Afterwards, Prabowo appeared more cooperative, given that he was the Minister of Defence in the cabinet and made Jokowi's son and Mayor of Surakarta, Gibran as his deputy.[49] In 2024, they expressed support for Jokowi's policies, including continuing the planning of the Nusantara Capital City as one of the national strategic projects. In his campaign, Prabowo often discussed the programme of distributing food and milk to students.[50] In addition, the "gemoy" (cute and cuddly) phenomenon become a new term for Prabowo's identity.[51]

In 2024, Anies Baswedan became a new rival for Prabowo, who had previously promoted Anies as a candidate for Governor of Jakarta in 2017, just as Jokowi, who was a rival for Prabowo in the two previous presidential elections, had been promoted by Prabowo as a candidate for governor in 2012.[52] Anies was a former cabinet minister who was dismissed by Jokowi in 2016, after which he was supported as a gubernatorial candidate by Jokowi's political opposition.[53] He often criticised government policies in terms of bureaucracy, investment, and corruption, collusion and nepotism.[54] During his presidential campaign, he called for a transformation of central government policies. For example, his food security programme preferred contract farming over food estates, which had been the government's programme.[55] In addition, he accommodated the aspirations of young voters by declaring the "Bawa Idemu Movement" which is a volunteer from the regions to voice their ideas to Anies.[56] Then, in certain forums, he was present to explain the vision and mission by opening discussions with young people.[57]

Ganjar Pranowo pledged to continue Jokowi's development programmes to be continued if elected president.[58] However, he initiated improvements to Jokowi's programmes and promoted a vision of accelerated development.[59] In his campaign, he followed Jokowi's lead by conducting blusukan in traditional markets. In addition, he performed jogging exercises in public, including in Jakarta, in the hopes of achieving greater public recognition.[60] During the campaign, Ganjar used a black shirt as a symbolic outfit in his campaign, while his deputy, Mahfud MD, wore his white shirt that had been prepared in his thwarted vice presidential bid in 2019.[61] Later, Ganjar considered that law enforcement under Jokowi's administration was low.[62]

On 27 November 2023, the KPU declared a peaceful campaign with the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs and their supporting parties, as well as signing an integrity pact in maintaining safe and peaceful elections.[63] The next day, Anies and Ganjar started their first campaign. Anies gave a speech in Tanah Merah Village, Jakarta,[64] while his deputy Muhaimin Iskandar campaigned in Jombang, East Java, which is the base of Nahdlatul Ulama as well as his birthplace.[65] Unlike Anies, Ganjar implemented a campaign strategy of blusukan in the western and eastern regions of Indonesia. Ganjar started in Merauke, South Papua and Mahfud visited Sabang, Aceh.[66] While the two candidates were campaigning, Prabowo and Gibran chose to stay on duty with their positions.[67] Gibran preceded Prabowo in campaigning on 1 December 2023 in Penjaringan, Jakarta.[68] After that, Prabowo's first campaign was in Tasikmalaya, West Java.[69]

Debates

Unlike in previous editions, the 2024 presidential and vice-presidential debates were attended by the candidate pairs.[70] Five rounds of debates were held between the candidates, with participants alternating between the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The first round of debates, between the presidential candidates, was held on 12 December 2023. The second round of debates, between their running mates, was held on 22 December 2023. The third round of debates was held on 7 January 2024. The next two rounds were held on 21 January 2024 and 4 February 2024.[71]

The first debate saw three presidential candidates debating law, bureaucracy, and the democratic system. Anies and Muhaimin appeared compactly wearing white shirts with black suits with stickers that read "AMIN" on their chests, Prabowo wore a light blue shirt in the colours of their partner Gibran and had a small pin pinned on his chest,[72] Ganjar appeared wearing a white shirt that read "sat, set", while Mahfud wore a white shirt that read "tas, tes" with a picture of a legal scale on his left chest.[73] During the debate on democracy, Anies and Prabowo clashed. Anies claimed that freedom of speech was still limited.[74] Prabowo responded by dismissing the issue. He insisted that democracy under Jokowi's administration was good, and that it was thanks to the democratic process that Anies could become governor.[75] Anies later replied that Prabowo was considered "unable to stand to be in the opposition camp" as an honourable position.[76] Anies and Ganjar both attacked Prabowo over the Constitutional Court decision allowing Gibran to become his running mate. In response, Prabowo stated that the decision would be left to voters. Prabowo was also questioned over his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of activists in 1997–98.[77]

For the vice presidential candidate debate, the public speculated that the debate was cancelled by the KPU, resulting in misunderstandings among the public.[78][79] Previously, a debate for vice-presidential candidates was held, in which the participants were Ma'ruf Amin and Sandiaga Uno. However, the KPU denied the elimination of the debate for vice-presidential candidates, but it will present candidate pairs in the debate contest, but the participants were between presidential candidates, between vice-presidential candidates, and between candidate pairs.[80][81] Thus, debates followed by vice presidential candidates proceeded in the second and fourth debates. The second debate covered the economy and infrastructure development, especially the development of IKN Nusantara. The debate participants were Muhaimin Iskandar, Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Mahfud MD.

During the debate on 21 January, Gibran Rakabuming was seen making a "ducking" gesture and pretending to search for a lost item in response to an answer from Mahfud MD, which drew mostly negative reactions online for its supposed rudeness.[82]

Timeline

The list of planned general election schedules is as follows:

Dates Activity
29 July – 14 December 2022 Registration, verification, and determination of election participants
14 October 2022 – 9 February 2023 Determination of the number of seats and determination of constituencies
19–25 October 2023 Presidential and vice presidential registrations
28 November 2023 – 10 February 2024 Election campaign period
11–13 February 2024 Election silence period
14 February 2024 Voting day
14–15 February 2024 Vote counting
15 February – 20 March 2024 Recapitulation of vote counting results
20 October 2024 Inauguration of the president-elect and vice president-elect

The following schedule only takes place in case of a two-round presidential election[83]

Dates Activity
2–22 June 2024 Presidential and vice presidential campaign period
23–25 June 2024 Election silence period
26 June 2024 Voting day
26–27 June 2024 Vote counting
27 June – 20 July 2024 Recapitulation of vote counting results

Opinion polls

Controversies

Constitutional court and Gibran's candidacy

The Constitutional Court of Indonesia (MK RI) made a controversial exception, allowing Gibran to run for vice president in the 2024 election.[84] As per the court ruling, candidates under the required age of 40 were eligible to seek the presidency or vice-presidency in the presidential ballot, given a condition that they held elected regional office in the past.[84] Since Gibran, who is the current Mayor of Surakarta, is the son of Joko Widodo, it led to speculation that the President influenced the ruling so that he could continue his legacy. It was also noted that Jokowi's brother-in-law and the Chief Justice of the MK, Anwar Usman, was also involved in the ruling.[85][86] Anwar Usman was ultimately demoted by the Honorary Assembly of the Constitutional Court from the position of Chief Justice on 8 November 2023 after finding him guilty of conflict of interest on the ruling.[87]

The KPU was also criticised for accepting Gibran's registration without following the proper procedures after the ruling from MK. Because of this on 5 February 2024, the Election Organization Ethics Council (DKPP) found that KPU chairman Hasyim Asy'ari, and all six of KPU's commissioners were guilty of an ethics violation for allowing Gibran to register his candidacy before the commission had adjusted the age minimum for candidates in its internal regulation.[88] Hasyim Asy'ari in particular received a "final stern warning" from the DKPP while the other six only received a "stern warning".[88] Hasyim received that particular warning was due to the fact that Hasyim has already collected two stern warnings from DKPP due to ethical breaches committed in March and April 2023.[88]

A lawsuit was filed by the Indonesian Democracy Defenders (TPDI) and the Indonesian Advocates Movement (Perekat Nusantara) against Joko Widodo, Gibran Rakabuming, Anwar Usman and First Lady Iriana alleging nepotism and political dynasty on the part of the respondents, but was dismissed by the Jakarta State Administrative Court a day before the election.[89]

Vice Presidential debate

Another controversy came from a widely misunderstood announcement of the KPU that the debate between vice presidential candidates would not be held,[90][91] which marked a departure from previous elections where vice presidential candidates did debate each other on more than one occasion.[90] However, the KPU denied the speculation and reiterated that in every debate, both presidential and vice presidential candidates must attend every debate.[92][93] This meant that the debate between vice presidential candidates continued and that they were accompanied by their running mates and vice versa.[92][93][94]

Social media usage and disinformation

Prabowo Subianto's campaign was noted for its efforts at rehabilitating his image from his association with human rights violations during the dictatorship of former President Suharto into a "cute and cuddly" (gemoy) grandfather figure among the youth, particularly first-time voters, going as far as to make an animated avatar of him on TikTok using artificial intelligence. Anies Baswedan's and Ganjar Pranowo's campaign also used interactive AI chatbots to engage with voters.[95][96][97]

During the campaign, Anies Baswedan was targeted by a deepfake audio recording purportedly showing him being chastised by a political backer in January. Prabowo Subianto's campaign team used AI to depict children in a television advertisement in order to bypass laws prohibiting the appearance of minors in political advertisements.[95]

Golkar, one of the parties supporting Prabowo for president, uploaded a viral AI-generated deepfake video on social media of a simulation of Suharto, who had died in 2008, in which he appeared to urge voters to select the party's candidates in the upcoming election. This led some civil society organizations to urge the KPU to implement regulations on the usage of artificial intelligence.[98]

Allegations of state support

On 12 February 2024, investigative journalist Dandhy Laksono released a documentary on YouTube directed by him, titled Dirty Vote, alleging that Joko Widodo used state funds to support Prabowo Subianto's campaign, becoming viral within the day and prompting accusations of sabotage by Prabowo's campaign team.[99] The presidential office denied the claims, while protests were held in reaction to the allegations.[100]

Discrepancies in vote-counting

During the vote-counting, allegations emerged of votes appearing larger on the KPU-generated online application Sirekap (Recapitulation Information System) than what the actual results showed. The General Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) attributed the issue to possible errors on part of the newly founded app, and welcomed an audit into Sirekap.[101] As of 20 February, Sirekap results from 1,223 polling stations were found to be mismatched with actual results.[102]

Release of results

Official results were expected to be released in March, but quick counts from government-approved tabulators came out shortly after polling stations closed.[96] Initial tallies from Indikator Politik, Kompas, and the Indonesian Survey Circle showed Prabowo Subianto receiving between 53.4 and 59.8 percent of votes cast, followed by Anies Baswedan, who received between 23.11 and 26.39 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo, who received between 16.72 and 17.12 percent.[103] On 20 March, Prabowo was officially confirmed as the winner of the election by the KPU, having won about 96 million votes (59 percent), against Anies Baswedan who won 41 million (25 percent), and Ganjar Pranowo, who won 27 million (16 percent).[104]

Official results

CandidateRunning matePartyVotes%
Prabowo SubiantoGibran Rakabuming (Ind.)Gerindra Party96,214,69158.59
Anies BaswedanMuhaimin Iskandar (PKB)Independent40,971,90624.95
Ganjar PranowoMahfud MD (Ind.)Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle27,040,87816.47
Total164,227,475100.00
Valid votes164,227,47597.51
Invalid/blank votes4,194,5362.49
Total votes168,422,011100.00
Registered voters/turnout204,421,61282.39
Source: KPU

By province

Votes by province[105]
Total votes
Anies Baswedan
Independent 		Prabowo Subianto
Gerindra 		Ganjar Pranowo
PDI-P
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Sumatra Aceh 2,369,534 73.56 787,024 24.43 64,677 2.01 3,221,235
North Sumatra 2,339,620 29.25 4,660,408 58.26 999,528 12.49 7,999,556
West Sumatra 1,744,042 56.53 1,217,314 39.45 124,044 4.02 3,085,400
Riau 1,400,093 37.96 1,931,113 52.35 357,298 9.69 3,688,504
Jambi 532,605 24.15 1,438,952 65.23 234,251 10.62 2,205,808
South Sumatra 997,299 18.98 3,649,651 69.47 606,681 11.55 5,253,631
Bengkulu 229,681 18.10 893,499 70.42 145,570 11.47 1,268,750
Lampung 791,892 15.49 3,554,310 69.55 764,486 14.96 5,110,688
Bangka Belitung Islands 204,348 23.08 529,883 59.85 151,109 17.07 885,340
Riau Islands 370,671 32.15 641,388 55.64 140,733 12.21 1,152,792
Java Banten 2,451,383 34.02 4,035,052 55.99 720,275 9.99 7,206,710
Jakarta 2,653,762 41.07 2,692,011 41.67 1,115,138 17.26 6,460,911
West Java 9,099,674 31.68 16,805,854 58.50 2,820,995 9.82 28,726,523
Central Java 2,866,373 12.58 12,096,454 53.08 7,827,335 34.35 22,790,162
Yogyakarta 496,280 19.80 1,269,265 50.63 741,220 29.57 2,506,765
East Java 4,492,652 17.52 16,716,603 65.19 4,434,805 17.29 25,644,060
Kalimantan West Kalimantan 718,641 22.34 1,964,183 61.05 534,450 16.61 3,217,274
Central Kalimantan 256,811 16.98 1,097,070 72.53 158,788 10.50 1,512,669
South Kalimantan 849,948 35.16 1,407,684 58.23 159,950 6.61 2,417,582
East Kalimantan 448,046 20.09 1,542,346 69.15 240,143 10.77 2,230,535
North Kalimantan 72,065 17.67 284,209 69.71 51,451 12.62 407,725
Lesser Sunda Bali 99,233 3.70 1,454,640 54.26 1,127,134 42.04 2,681,007
West Nusa Tenggara 850,539 26.20 2,154,843 66.37 241,106 7.43 3,246,488
East Nusa Tenggara 153,446 5.27 1,798,753 61.80 958,505 32.93 2,910,704
Sulawesi North Sulawesi 119,103 7.30 1,229,069 75.31 283,796 17.39 1,631,968
Gorontalo 227,354 29.39 504,662 65.24 41,508 5.37 773,524
Central Sulawesi 386,743 21.50 1,251,313 69.57 160,594 8.93 1,798,650
Southeast Sulawesi 361,585 23.09 1,113,344 71.11 90,727 5.79 1,565,656
West Sulawesi 223,153 27.23 533,757 65.14 62,514 7.63 819,424
South Sulawesi 2,003,081 37.94 3,010,726 57.02 265,948 5.04 5,279,755
Maluku Maluku 228,557 21.16 665,371 61.59 186,395 17.25 1,080,323
North Maluku 200,459 26.85 454,943 60.93 91,293 12.23 746,695
Papua Papua 67,592 10.81 378,908 60.62 178,534 28.56 625,034
West Papua 37,459 11.32 172,965 52.26 120,565 36.43 330,989
Southwest Papua 48,405 13.53 209,403 58.54 99,899 27.93 357,707
Central Papua 128,577 11.66 638,616 57.94 335,089 30.40 1,102,282
Highland Papua 284,184 21.89 838,382 64.56 175,956 13.55 1,306,740
South Papua 41,906 13.31 162,852 51.74 110,003 34.95 314,761
Overseas 125,110 18.64 427,871 63.73 118,385 17.63 671,366
Total 40,971,906 24.95 96,214,691 58.59 27,040,878 16.47 164,227,475

Demographics

The research and development department of Indonesian newspaper Kompas (Litbang Kompas) conducted an exit poll, and released a demographic breakdown based on political preference.

2024 Indonesian presidential election[106]
Social group Anies
(%) 		Prabowo
(%) 		Ganjar
(%) 		No answer
(%) 		Lead
(%)
Gender
Male 21.7 53.6 15.7 9.0 31.9
Female 22.0 55.1 13.4 9.5 33.1
Age
17–25 16.7 65.9 9.6 7.8 49.2
26–33 20.2 59.6 11.7 8.5 39.4
34–41 22.3 54.1 13.9 9.7 31.8
42–55 24.3 49.1 14.0 12.0 24.8
56–74 25.7 43.1 21.3 9.9 17.4
Education
Primary 18.8 55.6 17.4 8.2 36.8
Secondary 20.7 57.4 12.3 9.6 36.8
Higher 34.3 41.7 12.6 11.4 7.4
Social class
Lower 19.7 55.9 16.0 8.4 36.2
Lower middle 21.0 55.9 14.4 8.7 34.9
Upper middle 25.3 50.9 11.3 12.5 25.6
Upper 30.4 45.6 15.1 8.9 15.2
Religion
Islam (Nahdlatul Ulama) 21.8 55.8 12.8 9.5 34.0
Islam (Muhammadiyah) 41.9 41.6 10.6 5.9 0.3
Islam (Others) 30.1 49.5 9.8 10.6 19.4
Catholic 1.7 64.9 29.3 4.1 35.6
Protestant 1.7 56.9 32.9 8.4 24.0
Hindu 0.0 47.5 43.2 9.4 4.3
Other 7.9 50.0 26.3 15.8 23.7

Aftermath

Following the results of unofficial quick counts, Prabowo claimed victory on the evening of 14 February at an event with his supporters at Istora Senayan in Jakarta, calling it "the victory of all Indonesians."[107][108] Gibran Rakabuming also expressed thanks to Prabowo for "giving young people a chance."[100] Ganjar Pranowo's campaign team said that they were investigating reports of electoral violations and alleged "structural, systematic and massive fraud" during the voting.[109] Hasto Kristiyanto, the secretary-general of the PDI-P, said that election irregularities were enforced from the top down, beginning with the decision to allow Gibran Rakabuming Raka to run for vice-president. Hamdan Zoelva, former chief justice of the Constitutional Court and a member of Anies Baswedan's campaign team also said that there were "strong indications that violations occurred in a structured, systematic and massive way in the presidential election".[110] Remarks by independent observers indicated there were "no signs of systemic fraud".[111] Prabowo again expressed thanks to the electorate after the official confirmation of the election results on 20 March.[112]

The Indonesia Stock Exchange on 15 February recorded its sharpest rise in two months as quick count results indicated Prabowo's victory, which analysts attributed to the removal of political uncertainty which would arise from a runoff election. Largest gains were made by banks, nickel companies, and infrastructure firms.[113]

Protests

Following the allegations, police said that it would allow peaceful protests.[114] A demonstration was held in front of the Istana Merdeka in Jakarta in protest against Prabowo's claims of victory on 15 February, followed by rallies on 16 February against alleged electoral fraud[115] and Joko Widodo's perceived support for Prabowo at the KPU headquarters.[110] Joko Widodo dismissed the allegations of fraud, saying that evidence for fraud should be brought to Bawaslu and the Constitutional Court.[116] On the day the official election results were finally released on 20 March, 300 demonstrators protested alleged electoral fraud and Joko Widodo's support for Prabowo outside the KPU headquarters.[117]

Analysis

After the release of quick count results, Lingkaran Survei Indonesia attributed split-ticket voters to the Ganjar-Mahfud pair's poor performance despite the PDI-P's success in remaining the largest party in the legislature.[118] Notably, Prabowo won the most votes in the traditionally PDI-P supporting provinces of Central Java and Bali.[119] Kompas' exit polls found strong support for Prabowo's candidacy from non-Muslim voters and Nahdlatul Ulama Muslims, winning in 36 of 38 provinces (except for Aceh and West Sumatra, where the Anies-Muhaimin pair received the most votes).[120] Nahdlatul Ulama-affiliated academic Ulil Abshar Abdalla [id], in a Kompas column, attributed Prabowo's strong performance to Indonesian voters prioritizing the continuation of Jokowi's policies over concerns on legal and ethical violations.[121] Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud were also defeated in East Java and Central Java, respectively, even though their supporting parties (PKB and PDI-P, respectively) won the most votes in the two provinces.[122] Prabowo also won the most votes in Bali, a traditional PDI-P stronghold, a victory attributed by analysts and Prabowo's campaign team to Jokowi's endorsement.[123][124]

Of parties which qualified for the House of Representatives in 2019, Golkar gained the most in 2024, increasing the party's vote share from 12 percent to over 15 percent.[125] The United Development Party failed to qualify for parliament for the first time since the party's first electoral participation in the 1977 election.[126]

Reactions

Domestic

Outgoing president Joko Widodo stated that he had met and congratulated Prabowo and his own son, Gibran, on the evening of 14 February, based on quick count results.[127] Former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono congratulated Prabowo and stated that he "is now his commander".[128]

Chairman of the NasDem Party Surya Paloh in a press conference said his party accepted the results of both legislative and presidential elections and congratulated all winners of the legislative election and the Prabowo-Gibran ticket.[129] Despite this, Paloh states that NasDem will continue to support efforts to "seek justice" regarding the election results. NasDem will also file a lawsuit against the election results, including for the election of legislative members in six electoral districts, namely three electoral districts in Sumatra, one electoral district in Papua, and two electoral districts in Java.[130] The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) also accepted the results with party secretary general Aboe Bakar Alhabsy expressing his happiness on its electoral gain of 3 seats.[131] However, PKS states that the legal process for the election is still ongoing, citing the problems of using the Sirekap.[131]

Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar said that "It is important to safeguard the election process to ensure legitimacy, trust and inclusiveness in the results".[132] In an apparent criticism towards Gibran Rakabuming Raka's candidacy as vice president, Anies stated that "leaders born from a process tainted with fraud and irregularities will produce a regime that produces policies full of injustice" and his team did not want this to happen.[132] They have formally rejected the results of the presidential election announced by the KPU and intended to protest the result to the Constitutional Court.[133]

Ganjar Pranowo's campaign legal team deputy leader Todung Mulya Lubis also stated they would protest the results to the Constitutional Court and rejecting the results of the presidential election especially on the PDI-P's stronghold provinces of Central Java, Bali, North Sulawesi and East Nusa Tenggara.[134] Despite this, Todung Mulya Lubis stated they were not in the position to reject the whole results and only wanted to "correct the errors".[134] PDI-P's coalition partner PPP also rejected the election results, citing discrepancies between KPU's and the party's internal results.[135]

Grand Imam of the Istiqlal Mosque Nasaruddin Umar congratulated Prabowo and Gibran on their victory in the election and expressed hope that Indonesia will be more developed and more successful under their leadership.[136] Nahdlatul Ulama chief Yahya Cholil Staquf congratulated Prabowo-Gibran for winning the election and all parties that won seats in the legislative election.[137] Muhammadiyah chief Haedar Nashir had also congratulated Prabowo-Gibran, hoping that the elected pair have the spirit of a statesman in carrying out the popular mandate.[138]

Sultan and Governor of Yogyakarta Hamengkubuwono X congratulated Prabowo-Gibran for their electoral victory and expressed hope for their successful administration.[139]

International

Asia

  •  China – Chinese Ambassador to Indonesia Lu Kang visited Prabowo's home on 18 February and personally congratulated him over the election results while expressing hope that "Indonesia and China can grow together, prosper together".[140] On 20 March, President Xi Jinping delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo for his victory and said that he looked forward to meet with him and work together with his administration.[141][142] This letter was delivered by Chinese Ambassador to Indonesia Lu Kang.[143]
  •  East Timor – President José Ramos-Horta congratulated Prabowo through a phone call on 19 February.[144]
  •  India – Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the Indonesian people for the successful election and Prabowo for his victory on social media. Modi said he hoped to be able to work with the new president to strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nation.[145]
  •  Iran – President Ebrahim Raisi delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo for being elected president based on the election results. He also stated his hope for both countries to have collaborative efforts, mutual understanding, and shared endeavours under Prabowo's presidency.[146]
  •  Japan – Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo and expressed his desire to encourage bilateral cooperation in handling regional and international situations.[147]
  •  Jordan – King Abdullah II congratulated Prabowo through a phone call based on the projected results. He also stated that Prabowo was needed by Indonesia and expressed his readiness to receive him in Jordan.[148]
  •  Malaysia – Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim congratulated Prabowo for his victory in the election in a phone call and stated in his Twitter account that he was the first leader to congratulate him. He expressed belief that Prabowo can carry out the given mandate with excellence.[149][150]
  •  Palestine – President Mahmoud Abbas delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo on winning the presidential election and expressed the commitment to working together towards further development and cooperation. He also stated Palestine's appreciation for Indonesia's steadfast support for the Palestinian cause and its people. The message was delivered by the Embassy of the Palestine in Jakarta.[151][152]
  •  Philippines – President Bongbong Marcos congratulated Prabowo for his commanding lead in the latest electoral count to be President on social media. He also stated that he looked forward to deepening bilateral ties, especially in the upcoming celebration of 75 years of diplomatic relations between Indonesia and the Philippines.[153][154][155]
  •  Saudi Arabia – King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud sent a cable of congratulations to Prabowo Subianto for winning the elections and wished him success.[156] Prince Mohammed bin Salman also sent a cable to Prabowo expressing his congratulations.[157]
  •  Singapore – President Tharman Shanmugaratnam congratulated Prabowo and stated that his strong mandate demonstrated the confidence and trust of the Indonesian people in his leadership.[158] Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong congratulated Prabowo for his apparent victory, and congratulated Jokowi for the "smooth and successful conduct" of the election.[159] He also stated that he valued Prabowo's goodwill and friendship, and appreciated his insights.[158]
  •  Sri Lanka – President Ranil Wickremesinghe congratulated Prabowo for his victory in the election through a phone call.[149]
  •  Taiwan – President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te congratulated Prabowo on his election victory through the Foreign Ministry. The ministry stated Indonesia and Taiwan shared the same democratic and liberal values and hoped to deepen bilateral ties with Indonesia under Prabowo.[160]
  •  Thailand – Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin congratulated Prabowo for his victory on social media. He expressed hope to strengthen bilateral relations.[161]
  •  Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo following the election and expressed hope that the results will be auspicious. The message was delivered to Prabowo by Turkish Ambassador to Indonesia Talip Küçükcan.[162]
  •  United Arab Emirates – President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan congratulated Prabowo by phone call following the election results.[163]

Australasia & Oceania

  •  Australia – Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that the Australian government was looking "forward to working closely with the next president" when he is inaugurated.[97] Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called Prabowo on 15 February, tweeting that he was "the first foreign leader to speak today with Prabowo, who has a clear lead in official and unofficial counts".[164][165] On 23 February, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles personally congratulated Prabowo during his official visit to the Ministry of Defense of Indonesia in Jakarta.[166]
  •  New Zealand – Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters congratulated Prabowo through his Twitter account and said he looked forward to strengthen comprehensive partnership between both nations.[167][168]

Europe

  •  Czech Republic – Prime Minister Petr Fiala congratulated Prabowo on social media and stated "readiness to strengthen bilateral relations".[169]
  •  France – President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Prabowo through a phone call and expressed his hope to celebrate 75 years of diplomatic relations between France and Indonesia.[170]
  •  Germany – Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Prabowo for his victory and welcomed the opportunity to further developed the strategic partnership between Indonesia and Germany in peace and security, economic cooperation, and shared commitment against climate change.[171]
  •  Hungary – Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated Prabowo for his victory and hoped for better bilateral relations between both nation. The letter was delivered to Prabowo by Hungarian Ambassador to Indonesia Lilla Karsay.[172]
  •  Netherlands – Prime Minister Mark Rutte congratulated Prabowo following the projected outcome of the elections on social media. He also stated that he is looking forward to continuing to develop the friendship and strong bond between their countries.[173]
  •  Russia – President Vladimir Putin congratulated Prabowo on his election win and expressed confidence that Prabowo's administration would contribute to the further development of relations between their countries and strengthening security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.[174]
  •  Serbia – President Aleksandar Vučić congratulated Prabowo through a phone call on 22 February.[175]
  •  Spain – Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez delivered a congratulatory letter to Prabowo following the election results and expressed confidence in Prabowo's experience and good performance to lead Indonesia in the future. The letter was delivered to Prabowo by Spanish Ambassador to Indonesia Francisco de Asis Aguilera Aranda.[176]
  •   Switzerland – President Viola Amherd delivered a congratulatory letter to Prabowo for his electoral victory as the eighth president of Indonesia. The letter was delivered by Swiss Ambassador to Indonesia Olivier Zehnder.[177]
  •  Ukraine – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Prabowo by phone call following the election results and invited him to an upcoming summit on Ukraine's peace formula in Switzerland in April.[178]
  •  United Kingdom – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered a congratulatory message to Prabowo on his electoral victory. The message was delivered to Prabowo's home by UK Ambassador to Indonesia Dominic Jermey.[179] Jermey also congratulated "hundreds of thousands of candidates who campaigned across the archipelago" and hailed the election as "a truly epic festival of democracy".[180]

Americas

  •  Nicaragua – President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo congratulated Prabowo and said they hoped to strengthen ties between both countries.[181][182]
  •  United States – State Department spokesman Matthew Miller congratulated the Indonesian people "for their robust turnout" in the election, calling it "a testament to the durability and strength of the Indonesian people's commitment to the democratic process and electoral institutions".[183] When asked why the White House had yet to congratulate Prabowo on his victory, US National Security Council Communications Advisor John Kirby said a statement would be released at an appropriate time and will respect the will of the Indonesian people.[184] On 12 March, President Joe Biden delivered a congratulatory letter to Prabowo on his electoral victory which was delivered by US Ambassador to ASEAN Yohannes Abraham. He congratulated the Indonesian people for their successful election, calling it "a testament for commitment to democracy" and he looked forward to strengthening Indonesia–United States relations further.[185] On 22 March, Biden personally called Prabowo to congratulate him for winning the election.[186] Secretary of State Antony Blinken also congratulated Prabowo on his victory and said that he looked forward to partnering closely with the incoming government.[187][188]

Aside from Prabowo, Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka also received words of congratulations from foreign government officials.[189]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Included Gerindra, the Golkar Party, the Democratic Party, the National Mandate Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party, the Crescent Star Party, the Garuda Party, the Gelora Party, and the Aceh Party.
  2. ^ Included Nasdem, the National Awakening Party, the Prosperous Justice Party, the Ummah Party, the Aceh Abode Party, the Independent Solidity of the Acehnese Party, and the Aceh Just and Prosperous Party.
  3. ^ Included PDI-P, the United Development Party, the Perindo Party, and the People's Conscience Party.

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