2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a slightly to moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he carries New Mexico while losing the Electoral College, he will be the first presidential candidate since fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 to do so; and if he wins the state while losing the national popular vote, he will be only the second to do so in New Mexico history, joining Republican Gerald Ford in 1976.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The New Mexico Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
Republican primary
The New Mexico Republican primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[9] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Ron DeSantis Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in New Mexico
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
