Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Opinion polls - New Zealand
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.[1]
Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[2] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Party vote
Graphical summary
The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.
Individual polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.
Graph of preferred prime minister polling before the 2020 election. Only includes people who polled above 1% at least once. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[11] and that Botany will be returned to National,[12][13] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[14]
^ abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
^ ab75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.
References
^ abDeguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
^Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
^"Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today". Radio NZ. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2 October 2020 – via 1 News.
^ ab"TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
^ ab"Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
^ ab"Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
^"Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
^Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
^ ab"Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
^"TV3 Poll Results | Reid Research | Independent Field Market Research". Archived from the original on 9 March 2019.
^Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
^"National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
^Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
^Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
^"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
^Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
^O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.