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 County results Bunning: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Mongiardo: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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 Government |
The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.
Democratic primary
[edit]Background
[edit]Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.
Candidates
[edit]- Daniel Mongiardo, Kentucky State Senator
- David Lynn Williams, perennial candidate[1]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 142,162 | 64.92% | |
| Democratic | David L. Williams | 76,807 | 35.08% | |
| Total votes | 218,969 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Jim Bunning, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Barry Metcalf, Kentucky State Senator
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 96,545 | 84.00% | |
| Republican | Barry Metcalf | 18,395 | 16.00% | |
| Total votes | 114,940 | 100.00% | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Jim Bunning (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Daniel Mongiardo (D), State Senator
Campaign
[edit]During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.[3][4]
Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.
The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Lean R | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jim Bunning (R) |
Daniel Mongiardo (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[6][A] | October 28–30, 2004 | 631 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 5% | 2% |
| The Courier-Journal[7] | October 18–20, 2004 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[8][A] | October 17–19, 2004 | 623 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | 6% | 2% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[9][B] | October 15–17, 2004 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[b] | 43% | – | 14% |
| 39% | 40% | – | 21% | ||||
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[9][B] | October 6–7, 2004 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47%[b] | 39% | – | 14% |
| 43% | 37% | – | 20% | ||||
| SurveyUSA[10][A] | October 4–6, 2004 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 7% | 2% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[11] | October 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| The Courier-Journal[7] | September 10–15, 2004 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 34% | – | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[12][A] | September 7–9, 2004 | 659 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 35% | 9% | 2% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[13][14][C] | May 19–20, 2004 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 873,507 | 50.66% | +0.91% | |
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 850,855 | 49.34% | +0.18% | |
| Turnout | 1,724,362 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
By county
[edit]| County | Bunning | Votes | Mongiardo | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 69% | 4,857 | 31% | 2,151 |
| Allen | 70% | 4,640 | 30% | 2,030 |
| Anderson | 51% | 4,676 | 49% | 4,540 |
| Ballard | 43% | 1,752 | 57% | 2,331 |
| Barren | 58% | 8,749 | 42% | 6,459 |
| Bath | 37% | 1,673 | 63% | 2,910 |
| Bell | 44% | 4,442 | 56% | 5,646 |
| Boone | 71% | 31,162 | 29% | 12,543 |
| Bourbon | 46% | 3,614 | 54% | 4,250 |
| Boyd | 49% | 10,181 | 51% | 10,713 |
| Boyle | 52% | 6,179 | 48% | 5,806 |
| Bracken | 66% | 2,249 | 34% | 1,183 |
| Breathitt | 28% | 1,607 | 72% | 4,201 |
| Breckinridge | 57% | 4,633 | 43% | 3,550 |
| Bullitt | 57% | 15,675 | 43% | 11,913 |
| Butler | 70% | 3,665 | 30% | 1,601 |
| Caldwell | 50% | 3,025 | 50% | 3,034 |
| Calloway | 51% | 7,456 | 49% | 7,063 |
| Campbell | 64% | 24,603 | 36% | 14,079 |
| Carlisle | 48% | 1,327 | 52% | 1,412 |
| Carroll | 48% | 1,788 | 52% | 1,971 |
| Carter | 45% | 4,794 | 55% | 5,754 |
| Casey | 75% | 4,483 | 25% | 1,476 |
| Christian | 63% | 12,331 | 37% | 7,304 |
| Clark | 48% | 7,047 | 52% | 7,559 |
| Clay | 62% | 4,336 | 38% | 2,643 |
| Clinton | 77% | 3,094 | 23% | 937 |
| Crittenden | 55% | 2,214 | 45% | 1,813 |
| Cumberland | 73% | 2,103 | 27% | 782 |
| Daviess | 51% | 20,148 | 49% | 19,739 |
| Edmonson | 62% | 3,165 | 38% | 1,942 |
| Elliott | 28% | 801 | 72% | 2,025 |
| Estill | 55% | 2,892 | 45% | 2,414 |
| Fayette | 41% | 50,209 | 59% | 70,798 |
| Fleming | 52% | 3,080 | 48% | 2,815 |
| Floyd | 29% | 5,015 | 71% | 12,092 |
| Franklin | 34% | 7,998 | 66% | 15,324 |
| Fulton | 46% | 1,237 | 54% | 1,426 |
| Gallatin | 59% | 1,736 | 41% | 1,184 |
| Garrard | 60% | 3,767 | 40% | 2,556 |
| Grant | 65% | 5,497 | 35% | 3,007 |
| Graves | 48% | 7,448 | 52% | 8,036 |
| Grayson | 62% | 5,894 | 38% | 3,618 |
| Green | 68% | 3,324 | 32% | 1,556 |
| Greenup | 50% | 7,804 | 50% | 7,874 |
| Hancock | 48% | 1,834 | 52% | 2,010 |
| Hardin | 57% | 19,916 | 43% | 14,910 |
| Harlan | 31% | 3,340 | 69% | 7,265 |
| Harrison | 50% | 3,738 | 50% | 3,702 |
| Hart | 56% | 3,518 | 44% | 2,785 |
| Henderson | 47% | 8,419 | 53% | 9,490 |
| Henry | 52% | 3,266 | 48% | 3,024 |
| Hickman | 49% | 1,093 | 51% | 1,159 |
| Hopkins | 56% | 10,161 | 44% | 7,930 |
| Jackson | 78% | 3,755 | 22% | 1,070 |
| Jefferson | 40% | 134,699 | 60% | 198,541 |
| Jessamine | 56% | 10,002 | 44% | 7,730 |
| Johnson | 59% | 5,242 | 41% | 3,711 |
| Kenton | 65% | 42,158 | 35% | 22,759 |
| Knott | 19% | 1,345 | 81% | 5,811 |
| Knox | 59% | 6,685 | 41% | 4,591 |
| LaRue | 60% | 3,429 | 40% | 2,241 |
| Laurel | 67% | 14,427 | 33% | 7,014 |
| Lawrence | 54% | 3,322 | 46% | 2,790 |
| Lee | 59% | 1,606 | 41% | 1,126 |
| Leslie | 51% | 2,438 | 49% | 2,339 |
| Letcher | 32% | 2,751 | 68% | 5,884 |
| Lewis | 70% | 3,562 | 30% | 1,509 |
| Lincoln | 57% | 4,870 | 43% | 3,695 |
| Livingston | 45% | 2,025 | 55% | 2,520 |
| Logan | 59% | 5,847 | 41% | 4,099 |
| Lyon | 45% | 1,680 | 55% | 2,082 |
| Madison | 50% | 14,743 | 50% | 14,790 |
| Magoffin | 43% | 2,100 | 57% | 2,816 |
| Marion | 41% | 2,881 | 59% | 4,112 |
| Marshall | 48% | 7,191 | 52% | 7,937 |
| Martin | 65% | 2,744 | 35% | 1,497 |
| Mason | 59% | 3,884 | 41% | 2,748 |
| McCracken | 52% | 14,934 | 48% | 13,940 |
| McCreary | 71% | 3,603 | 29% | 1,501 |
| McLean | 49% | 2,078 | 51% | 2,179 |
| Meade | 53% | 5,574 | 47% | 5,000 |
| Menifee | 39% | 946 | 61% | 1,484 |
| Mercer | 53% | 5,019 | 47% | 4,534 |
| Metcalfe | 58% | 2,260 | 42% | 1,608 |
| Monroe | 77% | 3,940 | 23% | 1,156 |
| Montgomery | 43% | 4,130 | 57% | 5,558 |
| Morgan | 39% | 1,800 | 61% | 2,758 |
| Muhlenberg | 44% | 5,604 | 56% | 7,178 |
| Nelson | 48% | 7,754 | 52% | 8,300 |
| Nicholas | 43% | 1,236 | 57% | 1,638 |
| Ohio | 56% | 5,371 | 44% | 4,202 |
| Oldham | 59% | 15,751 | 41% | 10,731 |
| Owen | 58% | 2,637 | 42% | 1,909 |
| Owsley | 63% | 1,142 | 37% | 660 |
| Pendleton | 65% | 3,824 | 35% | 2,042 |
| Perry | 23% | 2,620 | 77% | 8,659 |
| Pike | 39% | 9,672 | 61% | 15,293 |
| Powell | 41% | 1,961 | 59% | 2,806 |
| Pulaski | 67% | 16,053 | 33% | 7,848 |
| Robertson | 54% | 559 | 46% | 468 |
| Rockcastle | 69% | 3,956 | 31% | 1,812 |
| Rowan | 40% | 3,388 | 60% | 5,032 |
| Russell | 69% | 5,092 | 31% | 2,242 |
| Scott | 49% | 8,126 | 51% | 8,364 |
| Shelby | 54% | 8,544 | 46% | 7,269 |
| Simpson | 56% | 3,665 | 44% | 2,938 |
| Spencer | 57% | 3,799 | 43% | 2,821 |
| Taylor | 63% | 6,119 | 37% | 3,643 |
| Todd | 63% | 2,696 | 37% | 1,550 |
| Trigg | 58% | 3,354 | 42% | 2,457 |
| Trimble | 50% | 1,865 | 50% | 1,852 |
| Union | 49% | 2,791 | 51% | 2,880 |
| Warren | 56% | 21,258 | 44% | 16,457 |
| Washington | 56% | 2,761 | 44% | 2,146 |
| Wayne | 60% | 4,214 | 40% | 2,783 |
| Webster | 48% | 2,490 | 52% | 2,738 |
| Whitley | 64% | 8,082 | 36% | 4,620 |
| Wolfe | 33% | 911 | 67% | 1,856 |
| Woodford | 44% | 4,887 | 56% | 6,196 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
- Trimble (Largest city: Bedford)
- Logan (Largest city: Russellville)
- Hopkins (Largest city: Madisonville)
- Meade (Largest city: Brandenburg)
- Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
- Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
- Lawrence (Largest city: Louisa)
- Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
- Simpson (Largest city: Franklin)
- McCracken (Largest city: Paducah)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
- Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
- Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
- Green (Largest city: Greensburg)
- Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
- Estill (Largest city: Irvine)
- Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
- LaRue (Largest city: Hodgenville)
- Mercer (Largest city: Harrodsburg)
- Metcalfe (Largest city: Edmonton)
- Owen (Largest city: Owenton)
- Spencer (Largest city: Taylorsville)
- Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
- Boyle (Largest city: Daville)
- Washington (Largest city: Springfield)
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
- ^ a b "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 20, 2011. Retrieved April 17, 2011.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison". USA Today. AP. April 1, 2004. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
- ^ Paul Farhi (October 15, 2004). "Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race". The Washington Post. pp. A06. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ "Reports of Bunning's Demise Are Premature; Bush at Home in KY" (PDF). SurveyUSA. October 31, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ a b "Poll: Mongiardo Leads in Ky. Senate Race". Fox News. October 25, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "Has Bunning Stopped Free-Fall? Mongiardo Remains 14 pts Back" (PDF). SurveyUSA. October 20, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ a b "Recent Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Garin-Hart-Yang. October 18, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "Mongiardo Cuts Into Bunning Lead for U.S. Senate in Kentucky" (PDF). SurveyUSA. October 7, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "GOP Poll Also shows Bunning Sinking!". Daily Kos. October 19, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "KY Remains Solidly Red: Bunning & Bush Win, Amendment Passes" (PDF). SurveyUSA. September 10, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ Miller, Christopher (May 26, 2004). "Bunning campaign disputes poll numbers by Mongiardo". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "KY Bunning (R) 53 Mangiardo (D) 34". Daily Kos. June 9, 2004. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 20, 2010. Retrieved May 12, 2010.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites (Archived)
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