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45th Ontario general election

45th Ontario general election
← 2025 On or before June 7, 2029 (2029-06-07)
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election 80 seats, 42.97% 27 seats, 18.55%
Seats needed Steady Increase 36
 
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009
Leader's seat None Guelph
Last election 14 seats, 29.95% 2 seats, 4.83%
Seats needed Increase 49 Increase 61
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 7, 2029. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election,[1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Standings

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Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Seats
2025 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 80 80
New Democratic Marit Stiles 27 27
Liberal Bonnie Crombie 14 14
Green Mike Schreiner 2 2
  Independent 1 1
Total 124 124

Timeline

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2025

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Ridings

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The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[2] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[3] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[4][5] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[6]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election.[7]

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation.[8]

Opinion polls

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Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Abacus Data July 15, 2025 [p 1] 50 13 28 6 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 22
Pallas Data June 29, 2025 [p 2] 43 21 29 6 2 ±3% 1,080 IVR 14
Mainstreet Research June 26, 2025 [p 3] 41 17 32 3 7 ±3.2% 923 Smart IVR 9
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [p 4] 49 14 28 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 21
Leger May 25, 2025 [p 5] 45 15 32 5 3 ±3.1% 1,025 Online 13
Liaison Strategies May 9, 2025 [p 6] 46 13 36 2 3 ±3.09% 1,000 IVR 10
Campaign Research[a] March 26, 2025 [p 7] 46 18 24 8 4 ±2.2% 1,672 Online 22
2025 election February 27, 2025 — 42.97 18.55 29.95 4.83 3.70 — — — 13.02

References

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  1. ^ Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  2. ^ Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, S.O. 2015, c. 31
  3. ^ as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
  4. ^ "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  5. ^ Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
  6. ^ Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 18
  7. ^ Benzie, Robert (August 1, 2024). "Ford government to break with tradition and not adopt federal boundary changes for next election". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  8. ^ Benzie, Robert (July 29, 2024). "Doug Ford may be getting ready for an early election — but it's not clear how many ridings Ontario will have". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 28, 2025.
  9. ^ "Nick Kouvalis | Canada's National Observer: Climate News". www.nationalobserver.com. Retrieved April 2, 2025.
  1. ^ Coletto, David (July 24, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs hit 50% in vote intention; lead Liberals by 22". Abacus Data. Retrieved July 24, 2025.
  2. ^ "Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6". Pallas Data. June 30, 2025. Retrieved July 4, 2025.
  3. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. June 27, 2025. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
  4. ^ Coletto, David (June 10, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
  5. ^ "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  6. ^ "Ontario: PCs Lead by 10 as Ontario NDP Squeezed Out". Liaison Strategies. Liaison Strategies. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
  7. ^ "Federal Election Study - Ontario Advanced Analytics Federal and Provincial Ballot Tests March 26th, 2025" (PDF). QC125. Campaign Research. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  1. ^ Campaign Research is an internal PC Party polling firm led by Nick Kouvalis.[9]
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