Climate change vulnerability

Assessment of relative vulnerability to climate change and its effects
World gross national income per capita: Lower income countries tend to have a higher vulnerability to climate change.

Climate change vulnerability is a concept that describes how strongly people or ecosystems are likely to be affected by climate change. Its formal definition is the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans and also to natural systems (or ecosystems).[1]: 12  Issues around the capacity to cope and adapt are also part of this concept.[1]: 5  Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability differs within communities and also across societies, regions, and countries. It can increase or decrease over time.[1]: 12 

Vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain regional factors increase vulnerability, namely poverty, bad governance and violent conflict. Also, some livelihoods are particularly climate-sensitive, and therefore are more vulnerable than others. Examples for climate-sensitive livelihoods are smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities.[1]: 12  In general, drivers for vulnerability of people and ecosystems are "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance".[1]: 12 

Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories. Firstly, there is economic vulnerability which is based on socioeconomic factors. Some people tend to be more vulnerable than others, based on socioeconomic factors. This applies to people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly. And secondly, there is geographic vulnerability. Climate vulnerability is generally a bigger problem for people in low-income countries than for those in high-income countries.

Global vulnerability assessments use spatial mapping with aggregated data for the regional or national level.[2]: 1195–1199  Tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. For example, the Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment.[3] Climate vulnerability mapping helps to understand which areas are the most vulnerable. Mapping can also help to communicate climate vulnerability to stakeholders.[4] It is useful to carry out vulnerability assessments in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans.[5]

Definition

Thick orange-brown smoke blocks half a blue sky, with conifers in the foreground
A few grey fish swim over grey coral with white spikes
Desert sand half covers a village of small flat-roofed houses with scattered green trees
large areas of still water behind riverside buildings
Some climate change effects: Wildfire caused by heat and dryness, bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating, environmental migration caused by desertification, and coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise.

Climate change vulnerability is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans but also to natural systems (ecosystems), and both are interdependent.[1]: 12  Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability will be higher if the capacity to cope and adapt is low.[1]: 5 

Climate vulnerability can include a wide variety of different meanings, situations, and contexts in climate change research, and has been a central concept in academic research since 2005.[6] Early studies focused on biophysical vulnerability to climate change.[7]: 133  In other words, the effects of physical climate hazards such as a heat wave or heavy rain event. This direction of research was shaped by earlier natural hazards research.

The concept was defined in the third IPCC report in 2007 as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes".[8]: 89  The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 stated that "approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since previous IPCC assessments".[1]: 5 

In the context of political economy, vulnerability is defined as the state of individuals, groups or communities in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being.[9] Vulnerability is a relative concept, not an absolute one, meaning that "some people are less or more susceptible than others, at different times and places".[9]

Research in this area focuses on analysing the factors that "put people and places at risk and reduce capacity to respond".[10]

Types

Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories: economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. Neither are mutually exclusive.

Economic vulnerability

At its basic level, a community that is economically vulnerable is one that is ill-prepared for the effects of climate change because it lacks the needed financial resources.[11] Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge[quantify] investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and preparedness systems.[clarification needed] From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable, because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters.[12]

Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is driven by certain unsustainable development patterns such as "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance".[1]: 12  Therefore, vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain aspects within a region increase vulnerability, for example poverty, governance challenges and violent conflict. Some types of livelihoods are regarded as particularly climate-sensitive, resulting in a higher level of climate change vulnerability. These include for example smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities.[1]: 12 

Societal vulnerability to climate change is largely dependent on development status.[13]: 336  Developing countries lack the necessary financial resources to relocate those living in low-lying coastal zones, making them more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[14]: 317 

Geographic vulnerability

A second definition of vulnerability relates to geographic vulnerability. The most geographically vulnerable locations to climate change are those that will be impacted by side effects of natural hazards, such as rising sea levels and by dramatic changes in ecosystem services, including access to food. Island nations are usually noted as more vulnerable but communities that rely heavily on a sustenance based lifestyle are also at greater risk.[15]

Vulnerable communities tend to have one or more of these characteristics:[16] food insecure, water is scarce, delicate marine ecosystem, fish dependent, small island community.

Around the world, climate change affects rural communities that heavily depend on their agriculture and natural resources for their livelihood. Increased frequency and severity of climate events disproportionately affects women, rural, dryland, and island communities.[17] This leads to more drastic changes in their lifestyles and forces them to adapt to this change. It is becoming more important for local and government agencies to create strategies to react to change and adapt infrastructure to meet the needs of those impacted. Various organizations work to create adaptation, mitigation, and resilience plans that will help rural and at risk communities around the world that depend on the earth's resources to survive.[18]

Scale

It has been estimated in 2021 that "approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change".[1]: 12 

The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is not the same everywhere: there are marked differences among and within regions (see regions that are particularly vulnerable below).[1]: 12  Vulnerability can also increase or decrease over time.[1]: 5 

People who are more vulnerable

Hurricane Ida (2021) flooding effects in Pennsylvania, US where poorer neighbourhoods were more affected.

People who are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly. For example, when looking at the effects of climate change on human health, a report published in The Lancet found that the greatest impact tends to fall on the most vulnerable people such as the poor, women, children, the elderly, people with pre-existing health concerns, other minorities and outdoor workers.[19]: 13 

Climate change does not affect people within communities in the same way. It can have a bigger impact on vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and refugees than on others.[20]

  • People living in poverty: Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-income communities and developing countries around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change, due to their increased exposure and vulnerability.[21] A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change.[22]
  • Women: Climate change increases gender inequality.[23] It reduces women's ability to be financially independent,[24] and has an overall negative impact on the social and political rights of women. This is especially the case in economies that are heavily based on agriculture.[23]
  • Indigenous peoples: Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment for food and other necessities. This makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in ecosystems.[25] Indigenous communities across the globe generally have bigger economic disadvantages than non-indigenous communities. This is due to the oppression they have experienced. These disadvantages include less access to education and jobs and higher rates of poverty. All this makes them more vulnerable to climate change.[26]
  • Children: The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the worst-affected by global warming.[27] Children are 14–44 percent more likely to die from environmental factors.[28]

Causes

There can be "structural deficits related to social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions" which would explain why some parts of the population are impacted more than others.[10] This applies for example to climate-related risks to household water security for women in remote rural regions in Burkina Faso[10] or the urban poor in sub-Saharan Africa.[9]

Vulnerability for people of a certain gender or age can be caused by "systemic reproduction of historical legacies of inequality", for example as part of "(post)colonial, (post)apartheid, and poverty discrimination".[9] Social vulnerability of people can be related to aspects that make people different from one another (gender, class, race, age, etc.), and also the situational variables (where they live, their health, who lives with them in the household, how much they earn).[9]

Reducing vulnerability

Vulnerability can be reduced through climate change adaptation measures.[1]: 5  For this reason, vulnerability is often framed in dialogue with climate change adaptation. Furthermore, measures that reduce poverty, gender inequality, bad governance and violent conflict would also reduce vulnerability. And finally, vulnerability would be reduced for everyone if decisive action on climate change was taken (climate change mitigation) so that the effects of climate change are less severe.[citation needed]

Climate change adaptation

Adapting to climate change involves structural, physical, social and institutional approaches. Clockwise from top left: mangrove planting and other habitat conservation; seawalls to protect against storm surge worsened by sea level rise; green roofs provide cooling in cities and reduce urban heat island effects; selective breeding for drought-resistant crops.
This section is an excerpt from Climate change adaptation.[edit]
Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change. These can be both current or expected impacts.[29] Adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm for people, and is usually done alongside climate change mitigation. It also aims to exploit opportunities. Humans may also intervene to help adjustment for natural systems.[29] There are many adaptation strategies or options. They can help manage impacts and risks to people and nature. The four types of adaptation actions are infrastructural, institutional, behavioural and nature-based options.[30]: Figure 16.5 

Climate resilience

This section is an excerpt from Climate resilience.[edit]
Climate resilience is a concept to describe how well people or ecosystems are prepared to bounce back from certain climate hazard events. The formal definition of the term is the "capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance".[31]: 7  For example, climate resilience can be the ability to recover from climate-related shocks such as floods and droughts.[32] Methods of coping include suitable responses to maintain relevant functions of societies and ecosystems. To increase climate resilience means one has to reduce the climate vulnerability of people and countries. Efforts to increase climate resilience include a range of social, economic, technological, and political strategies. They have to be implemented at all scales of society, from local community action all the way to global treaties.

Climate justice

Equity is another essential component of vulnerability and is closely tied to issues of environmental justice and climate justice. As the most vulnerable communities are likely to be the most heavily impacted, a climate justice movement is coalescing in response. There are many aspects of climate justice that relate to vulnerability and resiliency. The frameworks are similar to other types of justice movements and include contractarianism which attempts to allocate the most benefits for the poor, utilitarianism which seeks to find the most benefits for the most people, egalitarianism which attempts to reduce inequality, and libertarianism which emphasizes a fair share of burden but also individual freedoms.[33]

Examples of climate justices approach can be seen by the work done by the United States government on both federal and local levels. On a federal level, The Environmental Protection Agency works toward the goals of Executive Order 12898,[34] Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. E.O 12898 states the goals of implementing federal environmental justice initiatives that work toward aiding minority and low-income communities that suffer from disproportionate environmental or human health impacts. To alleviate environmental and health challenges within many American communities the U.S Environmental Protection Agency has implemented projects[35] region by region to ensure the development of environmental justice. These developments include but are not limited to population vulnerability, green space development locally as well as federally, and the reevaluation of environmentally disproportionate health burdens.

Climate Vulnerable Forum

This section is an excerpt from Climate Vulnerable Forum.[edit]
The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is a global partnership of countries that are disproportionately affected by the consequences of climate change.[36] The forum addresses the negative effects of climate change as a result of heightened socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities. These countries actively seek a firm and urgent resolution to the current intensification of climate change, domestically and internationally.[37] The CVF was formed to increase the accountability of industrialized nations for the consequences of global climate change. It also aims to exert additional pressure for action to tackle the challenge, which includes the local action by countries considered susceptible.[37] Political leaders involved in this partnership are "using their status as those most vulnerable to climate change to punch far above their weight at the negotiating table".[38] The governments which founded the CVF agree to national commitments to pursue low-carbon development and carbon neutrality.[39]

Measurement tools

Vulnerability assessment is important because it provides information that can be used to develop management actions in response to climate change.[40] Climate change vulnerability assessments and tools are available at all scales. Macro-scale vulnerability assessment often uses indices. Modelling and participatory approaches are also in use. Global vulnerability assessments are based on spatial mapping using aggregated data for the regional or national level.[2]: 1195–1199 

Assessments are also done at sub-national and sectoral level, and also increasingly for cities on an urban district or neighbourhood scale. Vulnerability assessment is also done for local communities to evaluate where and how communities and livelihoods are vulnerable to climate change. Studies can vary widely in scope and scale— for example the World Bank and Ministry of Economy of Fiji commissioned a report for the whole country in 2017-18[41] while the Rochester, New York commissioned a much more local report for the city in 2018.[42] Or, for example, NOAA Fisheries commissioned Climate Vulnerability assessments for marine fishers in the United States.[43] In some cases vulnerability assessment is done in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans.[5]

Indicators and indices

Global indices for climate change vulnerability include the ND-GAIN Country Index, which measures national climate vulnerability globally, INFORM Risk Index and the WorldRiskIndex, which include social vulnerability indices.[44] Indicator approaches are also used at national and sub-national levels. They use a composite index of many individual quantifiable indicators. To generate the index value or 'score', most often a simple average is calculated across a set of standardized values. However, sometimes weighting is done according what are thought to be the most important determinants of vulnerability.

Climate vulnerability tracking starts identifying the relevant information, preferably open access, produced by state or international bodies at the scale of interest. Then a further effort to make the vulnerability information freely accessible to all development actors is required.[45] Vulnerability tracking has many applications. It constitutes an indicator for the monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects for resilience and adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability tracking is also a decision making tool in regional and national adaptation policies.[45]

Tools for vulnerability assessment

Similarly as for climate risk assessment, tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale at which the study is being carried out, and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. Modelling and other participatory tools include WEAP for understanding water resource vulnerabilities and assessing adaptation options. The Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment.[3] Climate vulnerability mapping is also used to understand which areas are the most geographically vulnerable. A systematic review published in 2019 found 84 studies focused on the use of mapping to communicate and do analysis of climate vulnerability.[4]

By region

All regions of the world are vulnerable to climate change but to a different degree. With high confidence, researchers concluded in 2001 that developing countries would tend to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[46]: 957–958  Based on development trends in 2001, scientists have found that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate change.[47]: 957  This was partly due to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.

In comparison, the climate vulnerability of Europe is lower than in developing countries. This was attributed to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems.[48]: 643 

Map of countries showing a Human Development Index

Examples for vulnerability and adaptive capacity by region include:

  • Africa: Africa's major economic sectors are vulnerable to observed climate variability.[49]: 435  As a result, Africa is highly vulnerable to future climate change. A projected sea-level rise of 0.48m[50] puts African coastal cities at risk as well as threatens the well-being of natural resources such as marine life. Article Camber Collective linked that temperature rise would increase the brewing of infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes and ticks; heightening the transmission of malaria, dengue fever, and Lyme disease.[51] Africa's vulnerability to climate also include disasters such as droughts, earthquakes, water scarcity, and heat waves which would disproportionately affect the livelihood of those from lower-income communities.
  • Asia: Climate change can result in the degradation of permafrost in boreal Asia. This will make climate-dependent sectors more vulnerable and affect the region's economy.[52]: 536  The World Meteorological Organization stated that degradation is a main factor in the increase of droughts and floods hitting the region, being one of the main causes of loss of life and economic damage in countries like Pakistan, Japan, China, and India.[53]
  • Australia and New Zealand: In Australia and New Zealand, some indigenous communities were judged to have a higher level of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity.[54]: 509  For example, the Aboriginal Australian population lives predominantly in three biome types which will directly impact their well-being with the onslaught of climate change. Those who don't live on the coast live in either desert or savanna biomes which will be severely impacted by the increasing temperatures brought on by climate change. Additionally, for those Aboriginals who live on the coast, they will be impacted greatly by sea level rise.[55] Overall, these communities will struggle significantly more than their non-native counterparts as they struggle to adapt especially as they don't have as much financial support to do so. Aboriginals make $771[56] per week, whereas non-natives make $1,888.80.[57]
  • Europe: Scientists judge the adaptation potential of socioeconomic systems in Europe as relatively high in 2001.[58]: 643  This is due to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems. According to an article[59] by the European Environmental Agency, most of what Europe expects to deal with involves natural disasters such as floods and heatwaves. The EEA reported that heatwaves have so far been their largest cause of fatalities and storms/floods cause the most property damage.
  • Latin America: The adaptive capacity of socioeconomic systems in Latin America is very low, particularly with regard to extreme weather events. As a result the region is highly vulnerability.[60]: 697  With the deforestation of the worlds largest rainforest, Latin America is taking a punch to the gut when it comes to receiving more CO2 emissions. In a study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,[61] it was discovered that the deforestation in the rainforest led to the decreased rainfall and the increase in temperatures. This will result in the frequency of dry seasons as well as higher temperatures for surrounding communities.
  • North America: Due to North America's vastness, different areas of the continent will receive different climate change impacts. In the more northern areas, such as Alaska, will experience warming. In an article[62] on glacier change, the state of Alaska's Department of Natural Resources reports that Alaskan glaciers are the fastest melting in the world, showing it contributes greatly to sea level rise. Droughts across the U.S and Canada will be increasingly common, causing events such as soil drying to occur, which will be detrimental to farming. Alternatively, the Gulf Coast and surrounding states can expect a higher intensity of hurricanes. It has been estimated[63] by NOAA that hurricanes will, on average, become higher in category and produce more rainfall. This will cause more chance for flooding, storm surge, and of course, more economic losses for those effected.
  • Arctic: The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change. It was predicted in 2007 that there would be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region.[64]: 804–805 
  • Small island Developing States are particularly vulnerable to climate change.[65]: 689  Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.

By country

  • v
  • t
  • e
Climate change by country
  • Afghanistan
  • Albania
  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Argentina
  • Armenia
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahamas
  • Bahrain
  • Bangladesh
  • Barbados
  • Belarus
  • Belgium
  • Belize
  • Benin
  • Bhutan
  • Bolivia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Botswana
  • Brazil
  • Brunei
  • Bulgaria
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cambodia
  • Cameroon
  • Canada
  • Cape Verde
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Chile
  • China
  • Colombia
  • Costa Rica
  • Croatia
  • Cuba
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Denmark
  • Djibouti
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • East Timor
  • Ecuador
  • Egypt
  • El Salvador
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Estonia
  • Eswatini
  • Ethiopia
  • Federated States of Micronesia
  • Fiji
  • Finland
  • France
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Ghana
  • Greece
  • Grenada
  • Guatemala
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Ireland
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Ivory Coast
  • Jamaica
  • Japan
  • Jordan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kenya
  • Kiribati
  • Kosovo
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Laos
  • Latvia
  • Lebanon
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Libya
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Malaysia
  • Maldives
  • Mali
  • Malta
  • Marshall Islands
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mexico
  • Moldova
  • Mongolia
  • Montenegro
  • Morocco
  • Mozambique
  • Myanmar
  • Namibia
  • Nepal
  • Netherlands
  • New Zealand
  • Nicaragua
  • Niger
  • Nigeria
  • North Korea
  • North Macedonia
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Pakistan
  • Palau
  • Palestine
  • Panama
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Paraguay
  • Peru
  • Philippines
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Qatar
  • Republic of the Congo
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Rwanda
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis
  • Saint Lucia
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Samoa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Senegal
  • Serbia
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Singapore
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Solomon Islands
  • Somalia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • South Sudan
  • Spain
  • Sri Lanka
  • Sudan
  • Suriname
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Syria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Taiwan
  • Tajikistan
  • Tanzania
  • Thailand
  • Togo
  • Tonga
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Tunisia
  • Turkey
  • Turkmenistan
  • Tuvalu
  • Uganda
  • Ukraine
  • United Arab Emirates
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • Uruguay
  • Uzbekistan
  • Vanuatu
  • Venezuela
  • Vietnam
  • Western Sahara
  • Yemen
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe
  • See also

    References

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