2023 DW

Near-Earth asteroid discovered in 2023

2023 DW is a near-Earth asteroid of the Aten group. It is approximately 50 meters (160 feet) in diameter, roughly the size of the asteroid that caused the Tunguska event,[a] and was discovered by Georges Attard and Alain Maury, from the MAP (Maury/Attard/Parrott) asteroid search program in San Pedro de Atacama on 26 February 2023, when it was 0.07 AU (10 million km) from Earth.[1] On 28 February 2023, with an observation arc of 1.2 days, it was rated 1 on the Torino scale for a virtual impactor on 14 February 2046 at 21:36 UTC.[6] The nominal approach is expected to occur about eight hours before the impact scenario at 14 February 2046 13:15 ± 72 minutes.[3] Between 5–8 March, the asteroid was not observed as it was within 40 degrees of the waxing gibbous moon.[7] On 14 March 2023 the European Space Agency was the first to drop to a Torino scale rating of 0.[8] Sentry dropped to a Torino scale rating of 0 on 16 March 2023.[9] It was completely removed from both risk tables on 20 March 2023.[10]

2023 DW currently orbits the Sun once every 271 days.[3] It came to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) on 26 November 2022, and then approached Earth from the direction of the Sun making closest Earth approach on 18 February 2023 at distance of about 8.7 million km.[3]

Risk

With an observation arc of 13 days it peaked at a Palermo scale rating of –1.89[11] with the odds of impact then being about 78 times less than the background hazard level.[b] It was removed from the risk table on 20 March 2023.

2023 DW nominal approach for 14 February 2046 21:36 virtual impactor
Solution Observation
arc
(in days) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma) 		Impact
probability 		Torino
scale 		Palermo
scale
(max)
JPL #2 (2023-Feb-28) 2 (38 obs) 0.0165 AU (2.47 million km) ± 21 million km 1:830[12] 1 –2.28
JPL #5 (2023-Mar-03) 4 (55 obs) 0.0181 AU (2.71 million km) ± 18 million km 1:710[13] 1 –2.21
JPL #6 (2023-Mar-04) 6 (60 obs) 0.0095 AU (1.42 million km) ± 13 million km 1:543 1 –2.11
JPL #7 (2023-Mar-05) 6 (62 obs) 0.0124 AU (1.86 million km) ± 13 million km 1:613[14] 1 –2.16
JPL #8 (2023-Mar-06) 6 (62 obs) 0.0123 AU (1.84 million km) ± 13 million km 1:560[15] 1 –2.12
JPL #9 (2023-Mar-11) 13 (69 obs) 0.0121 AU (1.81 million km) ± 8 million km 1:420[16] 1 –1.98
JPL #10 (2023-Mar-12) 13 (77 obs) 0.0097 AU (1.45 million km) ± 7 million km 1:360[11] 1 –1.89
JPL #11 (2023-Mar-13) 15 (91 obs) 0.0186 AU (2.78 million km) ± 7 million km 1:670[17] 1 –2.18
JPL #12 (2023-Mar-14) 16 (99 obs) 0.0192 AU (2.87 million km) ± 7 million km 1:770[18] 1 –2.23
JPL #13 (2023-Mar-15) 17 (104 obs) 0.0198 AU (2.96 million km) ± 6 million km 1:1000[19] 1 –2.34
JPL #14 (2023-Mar-16) 17 (112 obs) 0.0216 AU (3.23 million km) ± 5 million km 1:3600[9] 0 –2.90
JPL #15 (2023-Mar-17) 18 (115 obs) 0.0214 AU (3.20 million km) ± 5 million km 1:3400[20] 0 –2.88
JPL #16 (2023-Mar-19) 20 (118 obs) 0.0303 AU (4.53 million km) ± 4 million km N/A[5][c] N/A N/A
JPL #17 (2023-Mar-20) 21 (123 obs) 0.0317 AU (4.74 million km) ± 3 million km N/A[10] N/A N/A
2023 DW Earth approach on 14 February 2046
(about 8 hours before the impact scenario)
Date & time Nominal distance
2046-Feb-14 13:15 ± 72 minutes 4730116 km[3]

Risk corridor

Risk corridor as it was known on 3 March 2023 with a 4-day observation arc and 55 observations. The asteroid would have most likely impacted the Pacific Ocean. At the time of the potential impactor, the asteroid is most likely to miss Earth by about 4.7 million km and has a 3-sigma uncertainty region of ± 3 million km.[21] As the uncertainty region gets smaller the probability of impact can increase and then suddenly drop to 0.

  • Risk corridor over Indonesia and the Pacific Ocean
    Risk corridor over Indonesia and the Pacific Ocean
  • Risk corridor over the Pacific Ocean and Hawaii
    Risk corridor over the Pacific Ocean and Hawaii
  • Risk corridor over Mexico and the United States
    Risk corridor over Mexico and the United States
  • Diagram showing why as the uncertainty region gets smaller the probability of impact can increase and then suddenly drop to 0.
    Diagram showing why as the uncertainty region gets smaller the probability of impact can increase and then suddenly drop to 0.

Notes

  1. ^ a b The Tunguska asteroid is estimated to have been a common stony asteroid about 50–60 meters in diameter and similar in size to 2023 DW. The Chelyabinsk meteor was only about 18 meters in diameter. Meteor Crater was created by a relatively rare (only 5% of the population) iron-nickel meteor about 50 meters in diameter.
  2. ^ "Background risk" is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. A Palermo scale rating of 0 would be equal to the background risk.
  3. ^ The risk of impact dropped significantly as the 3-sigma uncertainty region became smaller than the nominal approach distance.

References

  1. ^ a b "MPEC 2023-D71 : 2023 DW". IAU Minor Planet Center. 27 February 2023. Retrieved 5 March 2023. (K23D00W)
  2. ^ a b "2023 DW". Alain Maury's Blog. Retrieved 11 March 2023.
  3. ^ a b c d e "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2023 DW)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 20 March 2023.
  4. ^ a b "2023 DW Orbit". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 5 March 2023.
  5. ^ a b "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (20.3 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 19 March 2023.
  6. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (1.2 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 28 February 2023.
  7. ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DW Target-Observer-Moon (lunar elongation) for 4–10 March 2023". JPL Horizons.
  8. ^ "Archive (14 March 2023): ESA Risk List". European Space Agency near-earth objects coordination centre. Archived from the original on 14 March 2023.
  9. ^ a b "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (17.7 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 16 March 2023.
  10. ^ a b "Sentry (Removed Objects)". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 21 March 2023.
  11. ^ a b "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (13.8 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 12 March 2023.
  12. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (2.0 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 28 February 2023.
  13. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (3.9 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 3 March 2023.
  14. ^ "Archive (05 March 2023): ESA Risk List". European Space Agency near-earth objects coordination centre. Archived from the original on 5 March 2023.
  15. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (6.8 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 6 March 2023.
  16. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (13.1 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 11 March 2023.
  17. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (15.0 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 13 March 2023.
  18. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (16.0 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 14 March 2023.
  19. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (16.9 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 15 March 2023.
  20. ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (17.9 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 16 March 2023.
  21. ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DW geocentric distance and uncertainty on 14 February 2046". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 4 March 2023. Retrieved 20 March 2023.

External links

  • 2023 DW at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
    • Ephemerides · Observation prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Observational info · Close approaches · Physical info · Orbit animation
  • 2023 DW at ESA–space situational awareness
    • Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical properties · Summary
  • 2023 DW at the JPL Small-Body Database
    • Close approach · Discovery · Ephemeris · Orbit diagram · Orbital elements · Physical parameters
  • LOV (uncertainty region): 5000 clones calculated in SOLEX 12.1. Based on 60 observations through March 4 / 5000 clones, SOLEX 12.1, 69 observations through March 11 / 5000 clones, SOLEX 12.1, 104 observations through March 15 (ptastro1)
  • Risk Corridor Calculations: Piero_Sicoli and StevearenoBR
  • Discovery circumstances: Alain Maury's blog
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