2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas
US presidential election of 2024 in the state of Arkansas
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state, Arkansas is now a strongly red state in presidential races, becoming safely red in 2008 despite Barack Obama winning nationwide. Since 2015 following the 2014 midterms, no Democrat holds a federal nor state position in Arkansas outside of the state legislature.[citation needed] Arkansas is expected to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.5% | 31 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 786 | 1.0% | |||
| Total: | 81,314 | 100.00% | 37 | 37 | |
| Source:[4] | |||||
Republican primary
The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.9% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.4% | 1 | 1 | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.8% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.2% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.3% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.2% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.1% | |||
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.1% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
| Source: [5][6] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 49% | 31% | 20% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Arkansas
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Arkansas Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ Yoon, Robert (March 3, 2024). "What to expect in Arkansas' state and presidential primaries". The AP. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas Presidential Primary". AP News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election | ||
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