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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote.
Background
[edit]After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. [1]
Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[2][3]
In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die," during a town hall in north-central Iowa.[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jim Carlin, former state senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[5]
- Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024[6]
Filed paperwork
[edit]- John Berman[7]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present) (decision expected by the end of September 2025)[8]
Declined
[edit]- Ashley Hinson, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district (2021-present) (running for re-election)[9]
- Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024[10]
Endorsements
[edit]Joni Ernst (undeclared)
Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Carlin (R) | $125,401 | $124,689 | $711 |
| Joni Ernst (R) | $6,747,240 | $3,871,158 | $3,404,497 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA[15]
- Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and former Chief of Staff to the First Lady of the United States (2009–2011)[16]
- Josh Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)[17]
- Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Senate Minority Leader (2020–2023)[18]
Withdrawn
[edit]- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (endorsed Turek)[19]
Endorsements
[edit]Josh Turek
- State legislators
- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present)[19]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nathan Sage (D) | $709,398 | $375,015 | $334,383 |
| Zach Wahls (D) | $656,638 | $30,288 | $626,350 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney[20]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Thomas Laehn (L) | $27,581 | $10,188 | $17,393 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[21] | Likely R | July 24, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Likely R | June 4, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Likely R | June 3, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[24] | Lean R | June 3, 2025 |
Polling
[edit]Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Jackie Norris (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Josh Turek (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Nathan Sage (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Zach Wahls (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[26][27][B] | June 2–3, 2025 | 568 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ Hayworth, Bret (April 16, 2025). "Field Widens for US Senate Race in Iowa". Siouxland Public Media. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
- ^ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
- ^ "BERMAN, JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
- ^ Fisher, Zach (August 12, 2025). "Sen. Ernst says reelection decision coming in 'several weeks'". WHO-DT. Retrieved August 14, 2025.
- ^ Fisher, Bob (August 25, 2025). "Hinson says she'll run for another term in Congress". North Iowa Now. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
- ^ "Maggie's List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements". maggieslist.org. Maggie's List. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
- ^ a b c "2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ "NEW POLL: Less Than Half of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 9, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
- ^ Smith, Allan (April 16, 2025). "Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst gets her first Democratic challenger for 2026". NBC News. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
- ^ Lesniewski, Niels (August 5, 2025). "Des Moines school board chair Norris enters Iowa Senate race". Roll Call. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
- ^ Opsahl, Robin (August 12, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, two-time Paralympian, launches campaign for U.S. Senate". KCCI. Retrieved August 15, 2025.
- ^ Koons, Cami (June 11, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls announces bid for U.S. Senate". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved June 11, 2025.
- ^ a b Gruber-Miller, Stephen (August 18, 2025). "Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on August 18, 2025. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
- ^ Foix, Chase (April 21, 2025). "US Senate hopeful speaks to Rotary Club of Sioux City". KCAU-TV. Retrieved August 7, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
- ^ a b c d Plascencia, Cesar (August 22, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls Performs Best Against Ernst in Potential Senate Matchups". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ "Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection". Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
- ^ "Iowa Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites